What do the Grizzlies do now?

At this time last season, Memphis was 2nd in the West and surging behind the heroics of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and head coach Taylor Jenkins. Now, as we are emerging from the 2026 All-Star Weekend, this once-thriving empire now lays in ruins. Jaren is a member of the Utah Jazz. Ja is stuck in moratorium, his trade value plummeting by the day and a small coalition of suitors content to see where it lands. Meanwhile, Taylor Jenkins hasn’t coached in an NBA game since Memphis dismissed him in favor of assistant Tuomas Iisalo. In a cutthroat Western Conference landscape, Memphis has retreated to the back of the race, resetting their timeline to align more favorably against burgeoning powerhouses in Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

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The emergence of Cedric Coward has made this transition feasible. Coming into the NBA Draft, Coward was touted as a game-breaking defensive wing and a raw-yet-high upside project on the offensive end. Coward’s stroke suggests an All-NBA upside that previously would have been discounted as lofty optimism. Should he fulfill this potential, it would provide structure and leniency to a potential rebuild that acts as an insurance plan, enabling Memphis to take a high-upside swing in the upcoming Draft. Coward’s prolificity raises the Grizzlies’ floor, though not high enough to play them out of contention for a top pick in the draft.

With all these pieces in place, there’s only one player who could throw a wrench in the gears. Since college, Zach Edey has been a proven winner. Edey capped off an illustrious career at Purdue by leading his Boilermakers to the National Championship, in which they fell just short to Stephon Castle and the UConn Huskies. Since entering the league, he has maintained this reputation with a career winning percentage of .545.

Even in a season wrought from hell for Memphis and Edey alike, the 7’4” center continues to affect winning. In the 11 games that Edey has played thus far, the Grizzlies have rattled off 7 wins. In this short sample size, his +4.1 Estimated Plus-Minus (96th percentile) and +1.7 Crafted Plus-Minus (86th percentile) are toward the top of the league. His True Shooting % of 64.4% is born in and around the rim, with 92.3% of Edey’s field goal attempts coming from the restricted area or closer.

His offensive efficiency tells only a chapter of his impact. Where Edey will eventually be paid in free agency is on the glass. He averages 11.1 rebounds per night, with 3.9 coming on the offensive end. His 5.4 Offensive Rebound Quality (99th percentile) and 1.4 Defensive Rebound Quality (97th percentile) place him in rarified air. In addition, his Block Percentage has spiked from 5.6% in 2025 (94th percentile) to 7.5% this season (97th percentile), an essential development for a team that just recently abdicated the services of a former Defensive Player of the Year. For a young team that’s only getting younger, having a player such as Edey who can nullify mistakes will ease the growing pains of an unpolished perimeter unit.

Edey’s seismic impact on winning basketball is a good problem to have for a rebuilding team. Most organizations would clamor for a young center of his caliber, and the Grizzlies covet him for all the qualities that make him exceptional. At the same time, his floor-raising capabilities truncate Memphis’s ability to procure a true number one option from the draft which, albeit predicated on Ja Morant’s exit this summer, is the next logical step in their rebuilding process.

Last season, Zach Edey’s most impactful 2-man lineups in terms of Net Rating came alongside Jackson Jr. (+12.7) and Morant (+9.9), suggesting that his play-style is most fully actualized as an amplifier of the talents and capabilities of a co-star. Isolate him on the body of a headless snake, and the resulting tank may be too heavy for even Edey to buoy to the surface, and the Grizzlies could feasibly sink to the bottom of the West.

This upcoming NBA Draft is loaded with talent, with any team fortunate enough to land a top-10 lottery pick obtaining a fighter’s chance at landing a future franchise centerpiece. Top-4 aside, assuming the Grizzlies have already won their way out of contention for a Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson, the point guard class is especially deep–welcome news for a team seeking to reshuffle their deck. At the upper crust are high-upside floor generals Kingston Flemings (Houston) and Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville). Darius Acuff (Arkansas) has made a late-season surge toward the claim of best all-around point guard in the nation, compiling ridiculous stat-line after ridiculous stat-line, capped off with a 49 point explosion in a double-overtime loss to Alabama on Wednesday. Even Illinois’s Keaton Wagler, though widely considered a two-guard at the NBA level, could project as a high-ceiling swing. Suffice to say, there are ample safety valves available should Memphis choose to tie a bow on the Ja Morant era.

This is a daunting hump to traverse. From Zion Williamson to Coby White, the 2019 Draft Class is chock-full of assets that front offices have allowed to spoil in hopes that they might one day fulfill since-defunct but once-lauded potential. Chicago in particular has made a spectacle of sitting on depreciating assets until their respective values suffocate, from White to Vucevic to LaVine to Patrick Williams. Should he leave this off-season, Ja Morant will garner pennies on the dollar, paid for the shell that he is rather than the potential he once showed. To sell low on a franchise player is painful, and it’s so much easier to delude yourself into one more year of patience. “Give him one more year,” we tell ourselves. “This is the year we get back to the top.”

As we’ve seen, this is almost never the case, and fortune favors those who act with preemptive ambition. The presence of Zach Edey shrinks this rebuilding window considerably. Comparatively, he shares this quality with Dillon Brooks. Brooks has proven himself as one of the most underrated floor-raisers in the NBA over the past half-decade, a reputation he has solidified by leading Phoenix to one of–if not the–most surprising starts in the league. It’s a tried and true fact: Dillon Brooks does not lose basketball games, and it’s not a stretch to suggest that Edey operates on a similar level.

At the All-Star Break, the Grizzlies are currently 20-33 (.377) and 11th in the Western Conference. They are the principal leaders of the Western Conference’s underbelly, leading Dallas by 1.5 games and Utah by 3.5 games, both of whom will spend the remainder of the season racing to the bottom. While it will be difficult for Memphis to catch them in this endeavor, it behooves the organization to try, and this quest begins and ends with keeping Zach Edey off of the basketball court. In spite of their struggles, Memphis is 7-4 in Edey’s 11 games played this season. If he returns, the Grizzlies’ odds for a top 4 pick will fall from slim to non-existent, while their chance to snatch up a top-end point guard will wane accordingly. Should he return next season, albeit in anticipation of a comparatively weak draft class, the Grizzlies will be back in contention for, at the very least, play-in position.

To reiterate, this is a good problem to have. If Memphis can hit on a top draft pick this season, Edey’s floor-raising capabilities will prove invaluable. However, it remains a hurdle that must be vaulted in anticipation of the rapidly approaching post-Morant rebuild. Is Edey too good to tank? I would argue that, yes, he is. However, with the upside of Cedric Coward and a treasure chest of future draft capital, I would argue that the Grizzlies are too good to tank as well.

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I was in my college’s fitness center rolling out some lingering tightness in my lower back when my phone lit up with a Twitter notification from Shams Charania. While balancing atop my foam roller, I lifted my phone above my head, unlocking it to reveal the tweet’s contents. It read,

“The Philadelphia 76ers are trading guard Jared McCain to the Oklahoma City Thunder for a 2026 Rockets first-round pick and three second-round picks, per ESPN.”

I gasped. Then yelled. Then sprinted out of the gym to call anyone who would listen. Jared McCain is an Oklahoma City Thunder. The 16th overall pick in last year’s draft class will join Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso as the reigning NBA champions loot Philadelphia to add to their stockpile of riches.

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I’ve since had a day and change to collect my thoughts on the transaction, and this is where I’ve settled.

McCain took the league by storm last season, scoring 15.3 PPG on 38.3% from three across 23 games before a meniscus tear literally cut him down at the knees. After a full off-season of rest and rehabilitation, McCain entered his sophomore campaign poised to pick up where he left off. Instead, he stumbled out of the gates, and was subsequently stampeded by the emergence of rookie VJ Edgecomb as an incumbent franchise cornerstone. He was then further pushed to the margins by the prolific contributions of Quentin Grimes, and Tyrese Maxey’s rise to superstardom accelerated Philadelphia’s timeline to where they could no longer accommodate the runway required for McCain’s return to form. Now, just one year removed from consideration as the NBA’s Rookie of the Year, Jared McCain joins the best team in the league, and the marriage is a match made in heaven for both parties.

The addition of McCain promises more than just polished talent and promising upside. For a contending club with a treacherous tax landscape looming on the not-so-distant horizon, McCain’s rookie contract, which totals $15.3 million over the next three seasons, is an absolute steal. In spite of his struggles, McCain has never lost his stroke from deep, shooting 37.8% from three thus far. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s gravity on the offensive end, McCain will be the recipient of vastly improved spacing, allowing him to rediscover an offensive identity without the heavy burden of expectation that weighed him down in Philadelphia.

Over the past 24 hours, I’ve been arguing against friends who seem unwavering in their belief that McCain will be more stashed than played, particularly come playoff time. I vehemently disagree. Two seasons ago, Sam Presti’s final and ultimate chess move at the 2024 trade deadline was to bring in Gordon Hayward and Bismack Biyombo, haphazardly plugging the team’s deficiencies in size and experience, a short-term salve with ulterior and far more consequential long-term implications. Though Biyombo was a non-factor and Hayward flamed out in a whirlwind of discontent, their expiring contracts cleared just enough room on the cap sheet for Presti to make a splash in the off-season, when he signed Isaiah Hartenstein to a 3-year, $87 million deal. The following season, Hartenstein’s screensetting, rebounding, and cerebral offensive wherewithal pushed Oklahoma City over the hump, bringing home the city’s first NBA championship.

These are not kindred trades. Yes, McCain’s allure is first and foremost situated at the coveted intersection between youth and cap flexibility. Next season, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams receive the first installments of their recently-inked extensions, each valued at $41.5 million–a combined 50% of the team’s salary cap. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will make $40.8 million, swallowing another 24.6% of the cap. Less, but not really. The team options of Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5m) and Luguentz Dort ($18.2m) need to be re-evaluated at the season’s end, decisions which will be considered in conjunction with the demands of extension-eligible Cason Wallace. McCain does not solve any of these issues. If anything, he complicates the Thunder’s long-term outlook, another valuable young asset whose monetary value is poised to balloon when his rookie deal runs its course.

Jared McCain isn’t a swing factor in the Thunder’s immediate success. He essentially slides into the vacancy created when, minutes after trading for the Sixers’ guard, the Thunder finally abandoned ship on the Ous Cruise, trading Ousmane Dieng to Charlotte for Mason Plumlee’s contract, which they promptly waived. McCain will play spot minutes, providing shooting on nights where the team’s main contributors go cold. The reigning champs can offer the patience that McCain’s inexperience requires, while still exploiting his talents within the capacity of a three-point specialist.

There’s a chance that McCain builds on last year’s flashes and grows into one of the league’s bright young stars. There’s a chance he doesn’t. Either way, it’s barely even a swing from Presti. Cost-controlled. Three years left of team control. 21-years-old. It’s like taking the first pitch off of Emmanuel Clase: you’re pretty sure what you’re getting–but even if you don’t, you’re only down 0-1. Sam Presti continues to manufacture situations with essentially no downside, and the ceiling on this McCain trade is astronomical.

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This might be a lazy title—maybe it’s even a half-baked idea for an article. I just need a safe space where I can talk through my conflicting thoughts about Jeremiah Fears. Is he the next great point guard? Or, will his taxing workload cause Fears to flame out before he can reach his full potential?

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The Current State of Affairs.

On October 14th, Jeremiah Fears turned 19 years old. Less than a month later, on November 2nd, he played 25 minutes against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, scoring 16 points on 4-of-8 from three in a 31-point road loss. Paired alongside teammate Derik Queen, the Pelicans have stumbled their way into two of the most polarizing rookies in the 2025 draft class.

Fears has started 34 of 36 games to begin his rookie campaign, second only to top pick Cooper Flagg (35). Among rookies who have played in at least 20 games, Fears’s Usage Rate of 24.2% is the highest, leading more coveted prospects like Dylan Harper (23.9%), Cooper Flagg (23.1%), and Kon Knueppel (21.6%). The 8-23 Pelicans, who recently forfeited ownership of their 2026 1st Round Pick, have not just handed this 6’3 guard from Oklahoma the keys to their future—they’ve trusted him with the present as well.

The gaudy usage numbers undeniably exaggerate Fears’s statistical production beyond his true impact. Nevertheless, the 19-year-old has impressed out of the gates. Through 36 games, he’s averaged 14.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists on 43.5% from the field and 32.4% from three. Fears has scored 20+ points in 7 games, while also scoring less than 10 points in 7 games. While his slender frame renders him a defensive liability (-1.7 Defensive EPM), Fears’s quick hands and solid instinctual capabilities on that end leave him tied with Cooper Flagg for the most steals among rookies (43).

In the NBA, numbers lie. A lot. Rookies who play a lot of minutes and are burdened with carrying the offensive workload of an NBA team are going to struggle. This is particularly true if they’re undersized and can’t drink alcohol until their rookie contract expires. I’m more interested in the narrative implications surrounding the Pelicans’ commitment to Fears, and what it means for their future.

A Very Fears Future.

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a position of short-term handicap. As mentioned, they are without their own first round draft pick in the worst possible year to be without your own first round draft pick. Not only are the Pelicans last in the West and 29th in the NBA with a win percentage of .222, but there’s an all-time draft class waiting to be announced in June, and a very weak draft class looming in 2027.

It’s unfair to say that the Pelicans have mortgaged their future. The trade that abdicated this coveted pick brought in Derik Queen, who has lived comfortably as a top three rookie in this year’s class. Thus far, he’s averaged 13.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while breaking every imaginable playmaking record for rookie centers. In spite of this production, the trade remains an inexplicable gamble that must work out.

Fears—the 7th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft—is the other major piece to this gamble. Whereas Queen’s legacy will forever be tied to whoever the Hawks select with the Pelicans’ pick, it was the selection of Fears at 7 that forced New Orleans to trade up in the first place. However the organization decided to pivot their future in the coming years, much of the discourse surrounding their timeline’s expediency will unavoidably circle back to Fears and Queen.

While I can’t hope to accurately predict what Joe Dumars, Troy Weaver, and the remaining consortium in the Pelicans’ front office, I have no shortage of thoughts on what they should be doing, while keeping the controls in the hands of Fears and Queen.

The most pivotal piece to consider is Zion Williamson, who almost definitely needs to be relocated. Maybe not this season, as there’s little incentive to bottom-out, but his injury issues have flagged him as damaged goods. If New Orleans can find a way to escape from the last two years and $87 million of his recently-inked extension, they need to do it.

Next, focus on building a defensive infrastructure, whether it be through the draft, trades, or free agency, to fill around Queen and Fears. The foundation is already in place. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III—both under contract through 2028—are two of the 20 best wing defenders in the sport. For all of his deficiencies, Jose Alvarado is a plus-defender and brings a reliably high effort-level matched by few. Whether they want to keep Dejounte Murray is a separate question, and ultimately inconsequential to their broader future, but he is, at worst, an average-to-good defensive presence.

With the massive 2027 free agent class on the not-so-distant horizon, there will be an entire eco-system of undervalued and hungry players available that would be net-positives to the Pelicans’ long-term outlook. I’m specifically eyeing players like Davion Mitchell and Luguentz Dort, who the Pelicans would be able to pay a higher premium than their current employers, and who could provide a combination of defense and reliable three-point shooting that would pillow Fears and Queen, allowing them to focus on carrying the offensive load.

No matter where the Pelicans go from here, Jeremiah Fears will be at the center.

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Again, these are not predictions, but manifestations. With that in mind, here is one wish I have for each Eastern Conference team as we head into the second half of the 2025-26 NBA season.

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Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

My Wish: Jayson Tatum returns.

I wrote Boston off as a play-in team in my preseason predictions. I was dead wrong. Jaylen Brown has proven himself to be a sufficient “panic button” first option, averaging 29.4 points on 49.7% from the field and 36.4% from three. My doubts were in part due to what I perceived to be a void in the center room. Neemias Queta has been adequate, which, it turns out, is all they needed. Boston is 18-11 and 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

If Tatum comes back from the Achilles injury he suffered in last year’s playoffs, I might be talking myself into the Celtics as my favorite to win the Conference. These are conversations I really want to have.

Philadelphia 76ers

My Wish: Jared McCain returns to form.

Jared McCain tore his ACL around this time last season. Unfortunately, as exciting as Maxey and Edgecomb have been, the third guard in the Sixers’ young core has since sunk into a Sophomore slump. McCain’s scoring production has been slashed in half from last year to the start of this season, dropping from 15.3 to 7.4 points per night. His efficiencies have followed suit, with the Duke product shooting less productively from every area of the floor.

With Philly positioned at the beginning of their rebuild, McCain has a long leash to return to form. When he does, it will open up doors for Philly to potentially shuffle some subsidiary assets and finally shed the Embiid era.

Brooklyn Nets

My Wish: Bottom out.

Please, for the love of God, bottom out. For some inexplicable reason, the Nets have continued to be too good to tank, landing just barely deep enough in the lottery to prevent them from drafting a franchise-altering talent. And, when they’re on the clock, they ultimately draft the wrong player. My solution—landing in the top 3 of next year’s draft—offers a foolproof guide to escaping mediocrity. Between Dybantsa, Peterson, and Boozer, you can’t go wrong. You’ve just got to get there first.

Toronto Raptors

My Wish: Make a big splash.

They won’t make the move you most expect (Anthony Davis), and they won’t make the move you least expect (Nikola Jokic?). I believe the Raptors will make the move we most medium expect. This is still a loosely forming idea, but I think it could look something like this…

Raptors get: LaMelo Ball

Hornets get: Immanuel Quickley, Ochai Agbaji, 2031 1st Round Pick (swap), 2032 1st Round Pick (unprotected).

I want LaMelo out of Charlotte for the sake of both parties, and I believe the Raptors have the defensive infrastructure to withstand his shortcomings. By taking on firsts that convey down the road, the Hornets can hedge on the Raptors’ future while preserving their own present.

I’m talking myself into it.

New York Knicks

My Wish: Not Giannis Antetokounmpo.

I don’t know if this counts as a wish, but I do not want New York to trade for Giannis, especially if it means blowing up their current core. To match salaries, the trade would most likely have to revolve around OG Anunoby, who is in the midst of his best individual season. If we’ve learned anything in the past, it’s that stars take time to integrate. With the East as wide open as it will ever be, it would be irresponsible for the Knicks to brave those waters.

You simply don’t need to.

Central Division

Milwaukee Bucks

My Wish: Resolve the Giannis situation.

I’ve grown curmudgeonly—yes, curmudgeonly—toward the whole situation. Giannis clearly doesn’t want to be there, yet he’s pretending to be bought into the Bucks’ long-term future. Milwaukee has every intention of surrounding him with a contender, but they have hit every wrong button. Blow it up. PLEASE.

Chicago Bulls

My Wish: Trades, trades, and more trades. If there’s time, fire everyone.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most perennially mismanaged organizations, so I don’t expect any of these wishes to be implemented by the season’s end. But, with the end goal of bottoming out in mind, here’s my quick and easy fix to help accelerate that process.

First, trade Nikola Vucevic. A lot of teams need centers, and you have one who’s way too good and way too old to still be hanging around. Next, trade Coby White. His defense is too poor to coexist in a backcourt with Josh Giddey.

Build around Giddey, Matas, and whoever you can steal from this upcoming draft. You’ll never find light at the end of the tunnel unless you start digging.

Indiana Pacers

My Wish: Be as bad as you started.

The Indiana Pacers opened the season as one of the worst teams in basketball. They still are, with a record of 6-24 through their first 30 games. My wish for Indiana is to continue at this pace and devote the season to capitalizing on the depth of the incoming 2026 draft class. Next season, Tyrese Haliburton will return and we can go back to business as usual. All of the sins against basketball that this current Pacers team is committing will be forgiven. Stay the course!

Detroit Pistons

My Wish: Don’t overreact.

My gut impulse was to wish for Detroit to pursue Lauri Markkanen. I’ve since retreated from this stance. At 23-6, the Pistons are in first place in the Eastern Conference by 2.5 games. While the East is wide open, the West is waiting on the other side to slam shut whoever emerges victorious.

There’s no need to rush the timeline. My wish is that Detroit holds onto highly sought-after pieces like Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland, allowing them to experience the growing pains of trial and failure as a collective unit. In the long-run, the synergy this will create will be more valuable than any player you could acquire at the deadline.

Cleveland Cavaliers

My Wish: A personality.

The Cavaliers need someone to inject some culture and accountability into a dead and destitute locker room. I can’t remember seeing a more talented team be less motivated and more complacent in mediocrity than these Cavs. Either this—or trade Mitch. He deserves better than to carry a low-end playoff team while the front office plays Sophie’s Choice with Garland and Allen.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

My Wish: Let Jalen Johnson eat.

My Christmas wish is that the Hawks let Jalen Johnson eat in the Point-Forward role. Make Trae Young play off the ball a little bit more. Maybe even trade the guy, even though I can’t think of a suitor. Is this a Milwaukee kind of guy? Could you get back Ryan Rollins and Kuzma? Would Milwaukee do that? Here’s something I’ve been mulling on…

Hawks get: Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Ryan Rollins

Bucks get: Trae Young, Asa Newell, draft assets

The market for Trae Young is thin, if at all existent. It behooves Atlanta to use this time to explore the ceiling of Jalen Johnson as a number one option. If there’s no future with Trae at the helm—which, let’s be honest, there isn’t—get off of him now while you can still recoup some value.

Charlotte Hornets

My Wish: Closure on the LaMelo Ball experience.

I’ve already voiced my discontent with LaMelo Ball’s tenure in Charlotte. However, I can acknowledge the merits of keeping him around. The Hornets’ offense is so inextricably tied to ‘Melo as the hub that to remove him would be to fracture the core of their identity. While this identity more closely resembles a traveling circus than a basketball team, it’s an identity nonetheless. Whichever way the Hornets decide to pivot—where they abandon ship or see it through to the end—the decision should be made in the coming months.

Miami Heat

My Wish: Make a splash.

I learned a long time ago that it’s a bad idea to bet against the Miami Heat. However, no matter how many rabbits Erik Spoelstra can pull out of hats, their current roster cannot compete for a championship.

But it’s close.

The Heat are in the enviable position of having moveable assets and an intention to win in a seller’s market. Whether it’s Ware, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jacquez Jr., or a combination of the four, the window is open for Miami to make a splash. If you’re going to commit to winning, then don’t waste time dancing around and pounce.

Orlando Magic

My Wish: Find a way for Paolo and Franz to share the court.

The Magic’s two young stars are operating on a pendulum of health, in which one only stays healthy long enough to see the other return from injury. When they’re on the court together, they have a +4 Net Rating in 286 minutes. Fine, but not at the level you’d hope for a team with championship expectations. Personally, my interest in the tandem is fading, with my long-term preference favoring Franz. Hopefully, the two can figure out a way to coexist in a way that’s lethal, not just satisfactory. If they can’t, then some tough decisions may need to be made.

Washington Wizards

My Wish: Bilal Coulibaly's offensive resurgence.

I will never stop believing in Bilal Coulibaly’s ability to be a dynamic two-way threat in the NBA. It gets tough, though. This season, Bilal is averaging 8.4 points on a measly 35.7% from the field and 24.4% from three—all career lows.

The Wizards can’t afford to wait for someone to break out. They haven’t had a winning record since the 2017-18 season, when John Wall and Bradley Beal were still rising All-Stars and Tomas Satoransky was pulling in 6th Man of the Year votes. As for Bilal, I sometimes feel like poking him with a stick to see if there’s life, because the flashes are there. He just needs to improve his consistency, and he needs to do so now.

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Disclaimer: These are not predictions, but rather manifestations!

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Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

My Wish: One more playmaker to pair with Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg shows all the signs of a franchise cornerstone, averaging 24.0 points in 35.3 minutes per night on 51.1% from the field in the month of December. He’s been propped up by the emergence of Ryan Nembhard, who has played 27.9 minutes per night over the past eight games, averaging a team-leading 7.8 assists per game. Still, Dallas doesn’t currently employ a guard who can defend the basketball. Assuming that Dallas doesn’t opt to bottom out and trade Anthony Davis, filling this vacancy should be at the top of their priorities. My ideal fit would be Collin Sexton, who I believe Charlotte would part with for an affordable price. Jamal Shead from Toronto is another interesting option, although the Raptors may be more frugal in their willingness to swap assets.

San Antonio Spurs

My Wish: A Western Conference Finals Berth.

Victor Wembanyama can behead Goliaths on his own. For the first time, he’s now straddled by a young and hungry core that’s prepared to follow him into battle. Dylan Harper (12.6 PPG), De’Aaron Fox (22.4 PPG), and Stephon Castle (18.3 PPG) have emerged as arguably the best guard trio in the NBA. Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes are both shooting close to 40% from deep on 7.0 and 5.6 attempts per game, respectively, while Luke Kornet has been one of the league’s most effective offensive rebounders off the bench. While they may not be ready to compete with the likes of Denver and Oklahoma City, San Antonio’s 21-7 start has completely remapped my expectations for them. With a team as young and talented as this, why not shoot for the moon?

Houston Rockets

My Wish: Dorian Finney-Smith

The Rockets are currently 1st in three-point percentage (40.3%), but dead last in three-point attempts (30.2). Two of their top three scoring options in Alpren Sengun and Amen Thompson attempt just 2.6 and 2.0 threes per night on 31.7% and 19.2% efficiency, respectively. Last season, Dorian Finney-Smith shot 5.0 threes per night on 41.1% shooting. Houston hopes his addition will further diversify their scoring output, adding another dimension of versatile wing depth, making them that much more dangerous come playoff time.

Memphis Grizzlies

My Wish: Ja Morant returns to form.

In 14 games this season, Ja has averaged 17.7 points on 35.7% from the field and 19.4% from deep. If you’re Memphis, your best player and franchise figurehead is having one of the worst seasons of any player in the league, and you’re just 3 games under .500. If you’re going to remain too good to tank–which Memphis unfortunately is—then, at the very least, squeak into the play-in. There’s dignity in getting wiped by Phoenix in April. You’ve just gotta make it there.

New Orleans Pelicans

My Wish: Derik Queen finishes the season as a top-five rookie.

Few front offices deserve to be at the top of Santa’s naughty list more than New Orleans. The only person who can prevent Troy Weaver and Joe Dumars from unwrapping lumps of coal on Christmas morning is their 6’9, 20-year-old center from Maryland, who has lit the NBA on fire out of the gates. Through 30 games, Queen is averaging 13.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and has the most assists through this mark by a rookie center in NBA history.

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder

My Wish: Health, Hardware, and AJ Dybantsa.

Maybe it’s because I’m a Thunder fan, or maybe I just think they’ve earned it, but I decided to get greedy and ask for three gifts for the Thunder this holiday season. Oklahoma City has proven its merit as a Finals front-runner, winning 26 of its first 29 games. If their core can remain on the court, the hardware will follow. Not to mention, if the Clippers continue to lose, the Thunder could wind up a few lottery balls away from a very high draft pick.

Utah Jazz

My Wish: Ace Bailey is a real NBA player.

I felt sad just typing this. He’s already heading in that direction, but the Jazz can’t afford another bust. Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh have all been rotten, and, frankly, I’m not having a good time. The front office appears to be committed to Lauri Markkanen in the long-term. Keyonte George has had a nice breakout season, averaging 23.9/4.2/6.9 on 44.7/35.6/90.8, but even he poses glaring questions for the defensive end. With all the coal the Jazz have gotten over the last few years, let’s hope Santa comes down the chimney with a gift this time around.

Portland Trail Blazers

My Wish: Find meaning in this season.

As greedy as I was with the Thunder, I’m not deluded enough to ask anything of Yang Hansen. Instead, please let this season mean something. As of Christmas Eve, we have learned very little about the Blazers’ identity. Deni Avdija has leaped into stardom, averaging 25.5/7.1/6.5 while dethroning Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the league’s King of Drives. However, the goal of the season wasn’t—and shouldn’t be—to find out how good Deni Avdija can be. When Portland wakes up on Christmas morning, I hope they find some direction waiting for them under their tree.

Denver Nuggets

My Wish: A championship.

For Christmas, the Nuggets should be asking for one last run out of the Jamal Murray & Nikola Jokic tandem before either of the two begins to fade. Denver’s 21-7 start is the best in franchise history and tied with San Antonio for second in the Western Conference. Four of the team’s five starters have been with the Nuggets for three years, with the fifth—Michael Porter Jr.—being replaced with Cam Johnson this past offseason. Last season, Denver took the eventual champion Oklahoma City to seven games in the Western Conference Semifinals. This year, the fanbase’s sole wish should be to reclaim their title as Western Conference champions.

Minnesota Timberwolves

My Wish: Make the Western Conference Finals…again?

There isn’t a clear path for Minnesota to make another run. Yet again, is there ever? Denver and Oklahoma City are more viable title threats than the Wolves, though Minnesota has given Jokic headaches in the past and has played the Thunder tightly twice thus far this season. San Antonio and Houston are deeper, more talented, and less flawed, but their inexperience in the playoffs levels the playing field. Unless the Timberwolves make a splash at the deadline, I think their ceiling is about the same as it usually is.

Pacific Division

Phoenix Suns

My Wish: How much more could you want?

The Phoenix Suns, who pulled the plug on both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal this offseason, currently sit at 15-13 and 7th in the West. For a team with no assets and $20 million of dead money on the books—courtesy of the Bradley Beal buyout—it’s the absolute best case scenario. In an article I published before the season began, I had optimistically projected the Suns be a dark house play-in team. While at the time this zagged from the popular consensus, Phoenix is now fighting to avoid the play-in tournament altogether. I suppose Suns fans could ask for Matt Ishbia’s forgiveness for Christmas?

Golden State Warriors

My Wish: Will Richard becomes Stephen Curry

Someone needs to lead this franchise when Stephen Curry finally hangs them up. At this point, the Warriors are hurdling toward an abstract, shapeless post-Steph world. Frankly, I don’t have a guess as to what their plan is. I suppose you could ask Jonathan Kuminga to step up to the plate and take the reins, but Kerr will never pose that question. I would prefer not to ask either. Will Richard, save us!

Los Angeles Clippers

My Wish: A Christmas miracle. Maybe relocation.

Preferably, a relocation to Seattle, but anywhere other than Los Angeles will do just fine. The city is cursed. Plus, Seattle needs a team! Maybe, instead of adding new walls to the Intuit Dome, circumventing salary cap restrictions, and spitting on the legacies of franchise legends, the Clippers will try…actual change?

Los Angeles Lakers

My Wish: Get serious?

I don’t know what else to say. The solution is right in front of them—Get serious basketball players. The Lakers are at a strange point where they’re trying to send LeBron off happily into the sunset, but are doing so in a way that completely undermines their chances at competing in the present. Hear me out, but I’ve got a plan…

• Trade LeBron to Cleveland for Jarrett Allen and a shooter (Craig Porter Jr.?).

• Trade Gabe Vincent and picks to Sacramento for Keon Ellis.

Bang. You’re competitive. Are you winning a title? Maybe not. But you’re better positioned to make a run.

Sacramento Kings

My Wish: Land a top-three pick. And, if you have time, trade Keon Ellis to a contender!

The Kings have been one of the most predictably rotten teams in basketball this season. Zach LaVine has underperformed. DeMar DeRozan’s age has finally caught up to him. Keegan Murray is playing 38.3 minutes per night. Russell Westbrook has been one of the few bright spots. The rookies Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Reynaud have provided a spark, but MAN could this team use Darryn Peterson.

Also, free Keon Ellis until it’s backwards.

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They’re currently shooting just 31% from three.

Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe have all missed games with injury.

…and the Thunder are 7-0.

Seven and OHHH.

In the wake of this tumultuous success, it’s fun to look back at what’s gone well, while at the same time looking at the avenues for continued success that the Thunder have yet to unlock. Here are 4 that have defined Thunder's success of the past, present, and future of the 2025-26 season.

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Ajay Mitchell is the real deal.

In the absence of Jalen Williams and Nikola Topic, Ajay Mitchell has assumed the primary role of secondary ball-handler tasked with alleviating the pressure of playmaking from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This off-season, I projected a huge leap for Ajay Mitchell in the expectation that he would assume this role. In a moment of bravado, I even compared his playstyle and command to James Harden’s early seasons in Oklahoma City.

But I don’t think anyone expected this level of production, and not this early.

Ajay Mitchell has played in all of the Thunder’s first seven games, averaging 17.3 points in 27.6 minutes per night. For a guard of his youth and size, Mitchell has commanded the paint at an unprecedented level. The 23-year-old has made 21 of 29 (72.4%) of his shots from within the restricted area, good for 11th among guards (min. 20 attempts).

The expectation is that Jalen Williams will resume his role as the primary ball-handler and primary playmaker in non-SGA minutes when he returns from wrist surgery. Ajay will have to continue to prove his value as an off-ball creator, an area where he will continue to work on improving. The three-point shot is still coming along, though perhaps his struggling stroke is simply an unfortunate casualty of a curse levied against the jumper-challenged Thunder team. Thus far, Mitchell is shooting 30.3% on threes, a number which dips to 28% on catch-and-shoot threes.

His adaptability when J-Dub returns will be a determining factor for how significantly his role shrinks as we get deeper into the season. If Ajay can continue to tighten up his game and earn the trust of the coaching staff with his effort, defense, and decision-making, he could be a catalyst for the Thunder’s chance at repeating.

Shai is going to win MVP again, isn’t he…

Somehow, last year’s *deep breath* All-Star, 1st Team All-NBA, MVP, Finals MVP, and DPOY-10 has done more than improve. He’s taken a LEAP. With the absence of Jalen Williams and the occasional spot rests of Chet Holmgren and the Thunder’s deep stash of supporting assets, SGA has shouldered a massive offensive load through the first 7 games of the season.

His usage rate is up marginally from last season, climbing from 32.5% to 32.9%. For the sake of argument, we’ll write off that 0.4% as insignificant. It’s about the same. With the exception of the three-ball, which I’m convinced has been cursed for the entire team, Shai is scoring the basketball with ridiculous efficiency.

The stats just jump off the page. His overall scoring production is up from 32.7 PPG to 34.2 PPG. To reach this number, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored the most points in basketball at 205. He’s shooting 9.0 free throws per game at an 87% clip, a product of NOBODY being able to guard him on an island. There’s not a game, or day, or HOUR that goes by where Shai isn’t the best player on the court. And, if he’s outmatched, he makes up for it with an indomitable will to reclaim his spot at the top of the pecking order.

If this year’s MVP race comes down to wins and losses, SGA will be the runaway favorite. The only way he loses is if Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic can parlay their torrid starts into unprecedented and historic statistical seasons. Regardless, Shai has more media momentum to repeat than initially anticipated, and he’s got the stats to back it up. If the cards fall where they should, expect him to finish either 1 or 2 come May.

The intriguing treatment of Brooks Barnhizer

The 23-year-old Brooks Barnhizer has played sparingly to start his NBA career, averaging 7.2 minutes per game in 5 games played. Most recently, Barnhizer was assigned to the Oklahoma City Blue—the G-League affiliate to the Thunder—at the start of their season. By all accounts, this is a typical way for a mid-second round pick to begin their career.

What interests me about the first few games of Barnhizer’s young career are the parallels in the ways the Thunder have utilized him in comparison to Alex Caruso. During last year’s Western Conference Semi-Finals, the Thunder flipped the series on its head when they put the 6’5” Caruso on the reigning league MVP and 6’11” behemoth Nikola Jokic. For the remainder of the series, Caruso’s active hands and quick-twitch presence made Jokic’s life hell, and the most was ultimately a defining factor in how the Thunder were able to advance.

This year, the Thunder have experimented with Barnhizer in a similar role. In the season’s first game, Barnhizer was assigned to guard Alpren Sengun on multiple occasions. Despite his inexperience, Barnhizer’s freneticism was evocative of a mini-Caruso, causing my mind to wander irretrievably toward one pressing question…

Is Barnhizer’s mirroring of Caruso a depth move, or are the Thunder bracing for a roster shakeup?

The easiest answer to swallow is that the Thunder are generating a bottomless stockpile of interchangeable clones in Barnhizer, Caruso, Luguentz Dort, and Cason Wallace to suffocate opposing guards in an impenetrable swarm of flying limbs. This answer is also likely true, especially considering the Thunder’s recent record of team-friendly contracts. But these contracts must be taken into consideration.

Alex Caruso is 31 years old and signed for over $20 million annually through 2029. Meanwhile, Cason Wallace recently accepted the qualifying offer on his rookie contract, which will pay him $7.4 million next season. Not to mention, Lu Dort has a team option for $18.2 million after this season. Even with GM Sam Presti’s optimism that the team won’t have to worry about apron taxes, decisions will inevitably have to be made.

If Barnhizer can follow in the footsteps of his aforementioned predecessors and become a contributing asset now, rather than further down the line, he could make some of those decisions a lot easier. In a short sample size, he’s shown flashes of potential that suggest he could be ready to make this jump.

There is no team in the CURRENT NBA that can compete with the Thunder.

This is not to say that this landscape will not change by the playoffs. However, as currently unfolding, no team in the NBA can compete with the Thunder in a 7-game series. At the risk of reducing a complex statement to a mere statistical argument, here are some numbers to mull over.

• The Thunder currently lead the NBA in net rating at +9.3, with the Nuggets in 2nd at +6.2. For context, the gap between the 2nd-ranked Nuggets and 8th-ranked Knicks is 2.9 points—smaller than the gap between 1 and 2.

• The Thunder are currently shooting the 3rd worst percentage from three in the league at 31.5%, leading only Boston (31.2%) and Indiana (30.2%). They also take the 6th most shots from three, shooting 41.2 attempts per game from deep. Despite this deficiency, they’re currently the only undefeated team in the league at 7-0.

• The Thunder are once again lapping the league in defensive efficiency, posting a Defensive Rating of +6.5. Again, the gap between the 2nd-place Rockets (+3.7) and 10th-place Timberwolves (+1.3) is 0.4 points less than the gap between Houston and Oklahoma City.

These stats don’t even tell the full story of the Thunder’s potential, which appears to be limitless. They’ve played half or more of their games without two of their three best players in Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, while incurring no shortage of DNPs by their supporting cast. Success thus far has been predicated on identity, depth, and the star-power of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The ceiling for this team is ridiculous, and I’m therefore going to sound like a delusional homer while talking about it. This team has a legitimate shot to win 74 games this season. At the very least, they have the best chance at knocking off the league’s scoring record since those Warriors teams from nearly a decade ago. If they can return and sustain their fully-formed roster, the Thunder’s success in the margins suggests that they could be primed for a historic campaign.

Granted, their strength of schedule to begin the season has been in the bottom half of the league. Regardless, you have to beat the team in front of you, and the reigning champs have spared no victims. This is the second chapter in the Thunder’s dynasty, with the first being written in last year’s championship season.

The Thunder’s Next 7.

*Predicted Outcome*

at Los Angeles Clippers (Nov. 4) — W

at Portland Trail Blazers (Nov. 5) — W

at Sacramento Kings (Nov. 7) — W

at Memphis Grizzlies (Nov. 9) — W

vs Golden State Warriors (Nov. 11) — W

vs Los Angeles Lakers (Nov. 12) — L

vs Charlotte Hornets (Nov. 15) — W

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The Ousmane Dieng Express is back on track—at least, in my world it is. I’ve never believed more wholeheartedly in the future of our third-year French phenom.

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Last night, the Thunder squared off against the Nuggets in their final preseason fixture, escaping at the buzzer with a 94-91 victory. Despite the absence of their engine, Nikola Jokic, Denver was in complete control for much of the first half. It wasn’t until late in the 4th quarter, when both teams emptied their benches, that Oklahoma City made its final surge.

And surge they did. Down 84-69 with less than 8 minutes remaining, the Thunder mounted an inspired comeback. Ousmane Dieng scored 14 of his 17 points in the quarter, including a game-winning step-through three that sent the Paycom Center crowd into a frenzy. It might go down as one of the loudest crowd pops in the decorated history of preseason basketball.

Chet Holmgren returned to action for the first time this season. Even without Jokic on the floor, he had a tough time getting positioned under the rim. He did, however, look stronger and more confident in his movements—a positive sign for a player who’s still rehabbing a hip fracture. Holmgren finished the game with 9 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block in 19 minutes.

Gilgeous-Alexander shouldered the offensive load in the first half for OKC, scoring 12 points on a perfect 5-of-5 from the field and 2-of-2 from three—a true shooting percentage of 120%. He also grabbed 4 rebounds and dished 5 assists in his 18 minutes of play.

Though the Thunder starters faltered against the non-Jokic Nuggets, their struggles were a product of poor shooting and a lack of urgency. They shot just 8-for-27 (29%) from deep as a unit in the first half. Luguentz Dort was the most prolific offender, shooting 2-of-8. In the first quarter alone, he hit 1 three-pointer in 6 attempts.

Those shots will fall. Had the starters played in the second half, shot variance would likely’ve brought this discrepancy closer to a more respectable median. The only worry at this juncture is getting Jalen Williams back in a timely manner—the final infinity stone in the Thunder’s title-contending core. Until then, we’ve got the ring ceremony and opening night tip-off in just a handful of days.

Life is good!

Next Game: Tuesday, Home vs Houston Rockets (Opening Night)

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Last night, the Thunder knocked off the Bucks in Milwaukee by a score of 116-112. Aside from the injured Jalen Williams (wrist) and Myles Turner (calf), both teams had their full arsenal of weapons.

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Preseason MVP front-runners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo traded heavyweight blows throughout the first half. Giannis’s 10 points on 6-of-8 from the free throw line underscore his dominance. Lu Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein both took a stab at stopping the Greek Freak, with neither finding very much success. Each was inhibited by a physical deficiency. For Dort, it was his size disadvantage, while Hartenstein didn’t have the lateral quickness to stay in front of Giannis. If the Bucks’ forward came away empty-handed from a given offensive possession, it was rarely because he failed to get to his spot on the court. Giannis finished the game with 16 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 stocks (2 steals + 1 block) in 25 minutes.

If the Greek Freak was dominant, Shai’s game could be aptly described as inevitable. He scored 21 points on 8-of-10 from the field, 1-of-3 from deep, and 6-of-8 from the free throw line. Defensively, his 4 stocks (3 steals + 1 block) were the spoils of his patented weak-side instincts, as well as the Bucks’ lack of primary ball-handling. In addition, the playmaking leap that many anticipated from the reigning MVP was evident in the 1st half, yielding 6 assists. His ability to create his own paint touches allowed for a consistent volume of wide-open threes for his teammates.

Picking up where he left off last season, SGA controlled the game as though it was on a string. Rather than physical dominance, he used a mastery of angles and direction to bait defenders into vulnerable positions before capitalizing on those mistakes. His legs sufficiently stretched, SGA logged a DNP in the 2nd half, playing just 19 total minutes in the contest.

The game got dicey in the 3rd quarter. With the exception of Cason Wallace, Daigneault rested his starters. This left the Thunder bench at the whim and will of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ front line, most of whom played the duration of the period. Watching Ousmane Dieng, Branden Carlson, and Malevy Leons try to keep the 2x MVP out of the paint was a nightmarish sight to behold. Playing this trump card, the Bucks climbed out of a double-digit deficit to take a lead into the 4th.

In the final frame, the Thunder won with defense and three-point shooting. As a team, they shot 6-for-8 from behind the arc in the 4th, compared to just 2-of-10 for Milwaukee. Ousmane Dieng and Malevy Leons combined for 4 threes in the closing minutes, sealing a gritty win for OKC.

This Friday, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets come to town for the Thunder’s fifth and final preseason fixture.

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Ajay Mitchell made his first appearance of the preseason in the Thunder’s 116-101 loss to the Pacers. It was a Finals rematch only in the loosest of terms, as both teams were without their most impactful contributors. The Pacers capitalized on the Thunder’s poor outside shooting and sloppy finishing at the rim, building a sizeable advantage at the start of the second half that they would never cede.

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Ajay Mitchell hit the ground running. In the first quarter alone, he scored 13 points on 5-of-6 from the field and 3-of-4 from the free-throw line. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him miss within five feet of the basket, which is an impressive quality for a player of his limited experience. As a rookie, Mitchell missed 46 games with a right toe sprain. Then, just this off-season, he suffered a sprain of the same ankle. As he settles more comfortably into the speed of NBA play, the second-year guard will see his role expand as an offensive initiator for the second unit.

Unfortunately, Mitchell collapsed with an ankle injury late in the second quarter when he inadvertently stepped on the foot of Brooks Barnhizer. Mitchell wouldn’t return for the remainder of the game, though Mark Daigneault hinted that this may just have been a precautionary measure.

The injury bug caught up to Isaiah Joe as well. In the waning moments of the 1st quarter, Joe suffered an ugly non-contact knee injury. That’s not to speculate on his diagnosis, but rather a commentary on how unsettling it was to watch. My advice to the NBA: Stop showing slow-motion replays of non-contact injuries! Hopefully, both Joe and Mitchell will be ready for opening night.

For the second time in this preseason, the Thunder shot below 40% from the field as a team (38.6%). Aaron Wiggins and Ousmane Dieng, two of the longest tenured Thunder players in Saturday’s content, combined to shoot 5-for-24 (20.8%). It was a game of variance, as they consistently found and took high-quality looks but could never seem to find their strokes.

Alongside Mitchell’s production, Thunder offense was kept afloat by their rookies, Brooks Barnhizer (16 points) and Chris Youngblood (25 points). Youngblood hit 4 of his 9 three-point attempts, while Barnhizer knocked down his only 2 attempts from behind the arc. In addition to his scoring, Barnhizer grabbed 11 rebounds—3 of which were offensive—and sniffed out 2 steals.

This game recalibrated my brain to how unimportant this game—and this preseason—is to the team’s ultimate goals. As much as I’ve enjoyed basketball’s return, and as large as we can amplify the importance of bench development and the ramp-up to regular season play, much of what we see in these first few games is eyewash. What really matters is preserving health.

In all likelihood, Joe and Mitchell will join the rest of the Thunder’s starters on the bench for their next preseason game, when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. After the scares suffered on Saturday night, Daigneault and his staff will understandably proceed throughout the remainder of the preseason with caution.

Next Game: Home vs the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday

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On September 1^st, 2022, the Utah Jazz traded Donovan Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It marked the end of the winningest six-year stretch of Jazz basketball since John Stockton and Karl Malone picked and rolled their way to back-to-back NBA Finals berths. When the Jazz lost Mitchell, they plunged into the anonymity from which they now pine to escape. For this reason, to understand the urgency of their current situation, we must start our story from this day, more than three years ago.

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The Mitchell trade came less than nine months after the hiring of Danny Ainge as CEO of Basketball Operations. The architect of Boston’s return to Eastern Conference supremacy, and one of basketball’s most notorious hoarders of draft capital, his appointment signaled a shifting wind in the sails of Utah basketball.

In the 2021-22 season—the last year of “Mitchell-ball”—the Jazz won 49 games and finished 5^th in the Western Conference. Despite this success, they had hit a wall. For Utah, building around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert was like trying to assemble a gorgeous piece of furniture from a Martian Ikea—the parts were enviable, but the instructions for assembly were indecipherable. Cutting their losses, the Jazz began to sell their roster for parts.

At 25, Donovan Mitchell was already one of basketball’s top scorers. In 2021-22, he averaged 25.9 points over 67 games en route to his 3^rd career All-Star selection. But his undersized frame was routinely exploited on defense, a deficiency that reared its ugly head in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert was the inverse—a low-volume, high-efficiency scorer with no discernible offensive creativity. He made up for his shortcomings with incomparable defensive instincts and impact, skills that had netted him three Defensive Player of the Year awards over the course of four seasons.

Merge them in a lab, and the Jazz would’ve had one hell of a two-way superstar. Sadly, they employed no such mad scientist. To make matters worse, there was growing tension between Mitchell and Gobert over their lack of postseason success. Sensing trouble in Paradise, Ainge’s first mission at the helm was to rectify this uncomfortable relationship.

His prescient solution was to offer up Gobert to the highest bidder. The Minnesota Timberwolves stepped up to the plate, enticed by the idea of pairing the 7-foot Frenchman with Karl-Anthony Towns, their resident star center. In return, the Wolves outsourced four role players to the Jazz—who mostly served to balance the books—as well as six 1^st round picks, including the 22^nd overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Walker Kessler. It was unequivocally the blockbuster, headline-grabbing shakeup of the summer.

That is, until September 1^st. The heft of Mitchell’s asking price instilled hesitation in potential suitors, of which there were many. Nevertheless, over the course of the summer, league-wide consensus suggested that Mitchell would either remain home or become a Knick. This certainty amplified the shockwaves when Cleveland swooped in to steal him at the eleventh hour. Offering a package of Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji, and five picks, it was Cleveland’s boldest bet since the LeBron years.

In the three seasons since this trade, the Jazz have not made the playoffs once. Their win total has declined annually from 37 (2022-23), to 31 (2023-24), to 17 (2024-25). Lauri Markkanen—their best player and the most dynamic component of the Mitchell trade—has failed to break through into superstardom, and has thereby come to embody the franchise’s lack of direction. Nevertheless, the Jazz front office has remained steadfast in its defense of Markkanen and has been reluctant to include his name in trade rumors.

In what has turned into a long-form tank, they’ve whiffed in the lottery in every season, picking 9^th, 10^th, and 5^th over the last three years. While the top of the Western Conference is in a golden age of parity, the Jazz have carved out a nook for themselves as the worst team in the field.

Given their lack of depth and overwhelming youth, all eyes rightfully remain on next year’s draft. It’s a stacked class, with names like Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer drawing drool from the jowls of scouts. What’s more, there is no path to the Jazz being good this year, and very little upward mobility from the 15^th seed. However, living for the future can cause us to lose focus on the present. In June, the Utah Jazz closed their eyes and took a massive swing, selecting Ace Bailey with the 5^th overall pick.

On Wednesday night, Ace Bailey made that swing look like a home run.

After a stellar freshman season at Rutgers, Bailey was widely considered the third-best prospect in his class, trailing only Cooper Flagg and his teammate Dylan Harper. He averaged 17.6 points on 46.0% from the field and 34.6% from three, while showing sporadic flashes of excellence on the defensive end. As for the “eye test,” Bailey compiled one of the most ridiculous tapes of tough shot-making in recent memory. All signs pointed to Ace hearing his name called early on draft night.

Then, the pre-Draft process rolled around, and Bailey’s inner circle turned the formality into a circus. For most college athletes, the greatest stressor of draft night is the hope that their name will be called. Many dream of this goal, and most fall short. Therefore, when Bailey’s team revealed his disinterest in multiple high-lottery teams, as well as his unwillingness to participate in pre-draft workouts, it was met with a firestorm of criticism. To add fuel to the flame, after being selected by the Utah Jazz, Bailey’s post-draft presser was…in a word…apathetic.

These negative narratives followed Ace to and through the Las Vegas Summer League. His two appearances showcased the polarities expected from a wide-eyed 18-year-old wing. Unfortunately, public perception of Bailey had already been poisoned. His struggles were amplified to extremes, and his successes were overshadowed by questions of personality and internal drive. Somewhere in this self-induced witch hunt, Bailey’s top-grade two-way upside was lost.

Thankfully, it seems as though the worst of that storm is behind us.

On Wednesday night, Ace Bailey scored 25 points in 31 minutes on 11-of-16 from the field and 2-of-5 from three. He was the game’s leading scorer and the brightest spot in Utah’s 140-127 loss to the Houston Rockets. For stretches, Ace looked like the second-best player on a court with Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Alpren Sengun.

What impressed me the most about his offensive game was the consistency of his effort. One of the perks of being a rookie in the preseason is the volume of minutes you’re allotted. As mentioned, Ace logged 31 minutes on Wednesday night, 4 more minutes than any other player. With a leash of this length, Bailey’s defenders oscillated from starting-caliber NBA veterans to hungry yet unproven rookies and sophomores.

Ace didn’t seem to notice. Regardless of the situation, he attacked all aspects of the game with tenacity. His off-ball movement and proficiency in navigating screens opened the floor for several easy looks, both for himself and his teammates. In isolation, he created space at will—and when we failed to shake his defender, Ace rose up and scored anyway.

Yes, I know. One game is not a sample size; it’s a data point. But it’s an intriguing data point, and it adds an element to the Utah Jazz that they haven’t had since Mitchell left…

Hope.

While Lauri Markkanen is a fine player with high upside and a jawline cut from marble, the Jazz remain in desperate need of a franchise-altering 1^st option. Can Ace Bailey become that player? Can he course-correct an organization that, through a painstaking pattern of self-destruction, has veered so drastically off-course? If the answer is yes, then the light at the end of the rebuild begins to shine a little brighter. We may even begin to make out a destination on the horizon. If not…well…let’s not even go down that path. The answer simply has to be yes.

It’s with the burden of this weight that Ace Bailey struts into his first NBA season. Over the next few years, his success will be a barometer for the ceiling of his team. If Ace can silence the crowd and ascend to his stratospheric ceiling, Utah has a fighting chance at relevancy. If not, the future gets very bleak, very fast.

Personally, I’m buying up all the Ace Bailey stock I can get.

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Tonight felt like the first real night of Thunder basketball since Game 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Alex Caruso all returned to action in their first home game of this pre-season, as the Thunder held off the Charlotte Hornets 122-116.

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Gilgeous-Alexander picked up right where he left off, scoring 16 effortless points in just 20 minutes of action. The Hornets banished Brandon Miller to SGA Island, where he got cooked, sliced, and served on a platter by the reigning MVP. Shai missed just two shots and took zero free throws in what the mainstream media would call an “ethical” masterclass.

For a player of his gravity, the goal of preseason is rarely to fill the point column. This rang true for Shai, who dished out five assists to supplement his silky scoring. As the floor general, the confidence and control with which he played was a palpable differentiator between the two teams.

Cason Wallace rounded out the Thunder’s starting lineup, his second appearance of the preseason. The first two OKC possessions of the game hinted at a potentially expanded role for Wallace within the Thunder offense this season. On the first, Gilgeous-Alexander swung the ball to Wallace on the left wing. He beat the Hornets’ defensive rotation, slicing into the paint and flipping a lob to Hartenstein, who was subsequently fouled by Moussa Diabate. Then, on the second possession, Wallace fired a three-point shot from an area on the court reserved for Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort.

He missed, but the intent was nevertheless clear. Because of his defensive excellence, we often forget that Wallace was the 10^th overall pick in the draft. There’s an untapped level to his offensive skillset that rarely escapes its cage. In the preseason, Wallace can stretch his legs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wallace’s role for this upcoming season was closer to what Dort provided last year—a higher volume of threes, and a more integral role as a drive-and-kick facilitator.

Hartenstein excelled in his role as a back-to-the-basket offensive initiator, particularly with the 2^nd unit. His centrality to the Thunder’s offense raised distant yet pertinent questions about his upcoming team option. Should OKC choose to pick it up, they risk flying uncomfortably close to harmful apron taxes. However, declining this option would jeopardize a pivotal element of their offensive game plan.

Exacerbating this dilemma is the ACL tear of rookie center Thomas Sorber, who was slated to alleviate some of Hartenstein’s responsibilities. Thankfully, we don’t have to think about this until July. Until then, all can be happy in the OKC Thunder Universe.

Hartenstein was hunting three-pointers in the 1^st half of tonight’s contest. Infamously, he shot 0-for-19 from deep for the Thunder last season. With each of tonight’s two attempts, the crowd held its breath, waiting to pop. On one occasion, Hartenstein knocked down a transition triple, sparking elation from the home fans. Unfortunately, to the chagrin of the masses, the referees would correctly conclude that his left big toe was on the line.

The brightest back-of-the-bench spark for Oklahoma City was Malevy Leons. Though I’ve often indicted him as being the second coming of Aleksej Pokusevski, it was refreshing to see his frenetic effort translate into commendable production. Leons scored 10 points on 4-of-6 from the field to go along with 2 blocks in 15 minutes.

His plus-minus of +5 in the Thunder’s six-point win didn’t do justice to how much he changed the game. In the third quarter, the Hornets were chopping into the Thunder’s lead one swing at a time. Then, Leons checked in. By the start of the 4^th, he had logged a +/- of +10 and was one of the main catalysts in repelling Charlotte’s attack.

The next Thunder game is on Saturday night against the Indiana Pacers—a rematch of last year’s Finals. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren remain question marks as they ease back from their respective ailments. While it’ll be interesting to see how the Pacers attack OKC without Haliburton, the priorities remain the same: keep the starters healthy and keep the bench growing.

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It’s October 6^th, and the Thunder are already playing in back-to-backs. They added Cason Wallace to the rotation tonight, but were without Aaron Wiggins (rest) and Nikola Topic (recovering from testicular surgery). Without their two primary ball-handlers from Sunday night, the Thunder offense sputtered, shooting just 30.9% from the field and 27.5% from three.

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The Thunder ran into a buzzsaw tonight. The Dallas Mavericks leaned on all of their prospective opening night starters in the first half, yielding a 16-point lead at the break. In the final five minutes of the half, Cooper Flagg scored all 10 of his points, including a series of silky turnaround jumpers. In our first glimpse of ‘Glasses AD,’ Davis scored 7 points and grabbed 7 boards, while shutting down the restricted area on the defensive end.

The Thunder struggled in the absence of a clear offensive initiator. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and the rookie Brooks Barnhizer split the duties in the first half, though each is a specialist in areas that don’t involve running the offense. Without any consistent offensive movement, the Thunder relied on a heavy diet of threes in an attempt to out-gun the Mavericks from deep. As a team, more than half their shots (51 of 97) came from three-point range. As mentioned, the Thunder went down with this ship, shooting 27.5% from deep on the night.

Despite mounting a late comeback, the Thunder fell by a score of 106-89. However dreary as it may seem, tonight’s box score doesn’t tell the full story. Without a point guard to set up the offense, most of OKC’s guards and smaller wings were forced to play out of position and in uncomfortable roles. Even under these awkward circumstances, there were a few silver linings.

Brooks Barnhizer continues to prove himself as a relentless competitor. It’s noticeable on nearly every defensive possession. In 37 minutes, his efforts got him two steals and a block, though his impact felt substantially larger. Last season, Mark Daigneault gave rookie 2^nd round pick Ajay Mitchell 16.6 minutes per night before he went down with turf toe. In the coming months, I envision Barnhizer getting a similar leash with which he can prove himself defensively.

Another underrated silver lining: the Thunder escaped without injury. The scariest moment came in the 2^nd quarter with 8 minutes remaining, when Jaylin Williams caught Max Christie’s right knee with his thigh. It looked worse live than it turned out to be. Thankfully, he returned to the game just minutes later.

The strangest storyline of the day was Nikola Topic’s testicular surgery, which will sideline him for an estimated 4-6 weeks. If the 40-day estimate is accurate, that would land us at a return date of Sunday, November 16^th, right around the tail end of a road trip. Their next home game would be on November 19^th against Sacramento.

Topic’s injury announcement is one of the most ridiculous notifications I’ve ever received. Nevertheless, terms like “testicular trauma” make me feel queasy, and I wish him all the best in what sounds like a nightmare of a recovery period. Thankfully, the Thunder’s depth allows them to withstand such a loss with minimal impact. In his absence, 1^st Team All-Summer League selection Ajay Mitchell will be able to use those extra minutes to reacclimate to NBA competition.

Oklahoma City’s next game is on Thursday, October 9^th, against the Charlotte Hornets. It will give their young core another chance to continue their adjustment to the NBA pace. Starters or not, every minute matters if they want to repeat as champions.

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The Thunder’s first preseason game against the Charlotte Hornets was a sobering reminder that preseason basketball is nothing if not confusing. In their first league play since their victory in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the reigning champions opened with a starting lineup of Nikola Topic, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, and Aaron Wiggins. On the other side of the stripe, the Hornets opted to roll with their full slate of starters—LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabate, and Kon Knueppel, the 4^th overall pick in this year’s draft.

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Despite the apparent talent gap leaning heavily in Charlotte’s favor, the Thunder held a 36-26 lead by the end of the 1^st quarter. In the period, Aaron Wiggins had 13 points on 6-of-8 from the field in 9 minutes to lead all scorers. Ousmane Dieng was equally impressive on a lower shot volume, adding 8 points on 3-of-3 from the field and 2-of-2 from three.

This was the closest the Hornets would get. The Thunder’s bench unit won all four quarters, scoring 30+ points in all but the 4^th, where they scored 28. The Hornets’ defense was porous. The continuity of returning 4 of 5 starters from last year’s team paid no dividends. Knueppel, Miller, and Ball all recorded a net rating of -25 or worse. Only three Hornets—Liam McNeeley, Pat Connaughton, and Ibou Badji—recorded a positive net rating in a disastrous showing from start to finish.

On a more positive note, we got a lengthy look at the players who will constitute the back end of the Thunder’s regular-season rotation. As a unit, they shot 40.8% from three on 49 attempts. In this effort, they got contributions from unlikely sources. Rookie Chris Youngblood shot 5-of-8 from behind the arc en route to a hyper-efficient 20 points in 21 minutes. Malevy Leons, whose wiry frame and #17 jersey evoked shades of Aleksej Pokusevski, shot 3-of-4 from three to go along with 11 rebounds and 3 steals.

Ousmane Dieng, Jaylin Williams, and Aaron Wiggins were the longest tenured returners to suit up for the Thunder, each of whom parlayed this experience into fantastic scoring nights. The trio combined for 57 points on 62.1% from the field—more than all five Hornets starters combined (51). It was a promising testament to the work that trio put in.

The foundational strength of the Thunder’s offensive game plan was apparent from the jump. There were moments when the two-man action of Aaron Wiggins and Jaylin Williams looked like a well-oiled machine. Even when movement broke down and the Thunder were reduced to isolation, the Hornets’ perimeter defenders struggled mightily to stay in front of their man. Again, a preseason matchup against the Hornets is not the strongest barometer for success. Nevertheless, it remains both a testament to the Thunder’s depth and an indictment of the current state of affairs in Charlotte.

My biggest takeaway from this game was Ousmane Dieng’s talent—something Thunder fans are reminded of regularly. Even beyond the fluidity of his scoring repertoire, Dieng’s outlet and push-ahead passing appeared much improved. His rim defense has always been underrated, but his perimeter footwork—especially when matched up against Brandon Miller—was eye-opening.

In my dream NBA, Ousmane Dieng plays 10-12 minutes per night as a small-ball, floor-stretching 5 for the Thunder this season. If he can prove that his improved consistency in three-point shooting and decision making are permanent leaps, this role is plausible. But it’s just as easy to imagine a scenario in which he’s not on the team in February. Dieng’s ceiling is so high and his opportunities so limited that, if the right price avails itself, a change of scenery would benefit both parties. Regardless of the outcome, I’m excited to announce that I’m drinking the Ousmane Dieng Kool-Aid once again.

On a personal note, I’m so happy that basketball is back. Life is better when the Thunder are playing, and it’s all the sweeter when they win. I look forward to covering this team, as well as connecting with more of you, as the season rolls on.

Next Game: Monday, October 5th vs Dallas

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But that’s not what keeps me up at night—what scares me the most about Wembanyama’s development is far more terrifying than anything he’s already accomplished.

This is the worst version of Victor Wembanyama that we will ever see.

In June, news broke that Wembanyama was training with the Shaolin monks of Dengfeng, China—you know, as one does. Media outlets scrambled for pictures of the goliath as he strode through the forested hills of Henan province, his shaved head and cascading maroon robes a testament to his commitment to the Buddhist retreat.

At the time, I didn’t think much of it. It was kitschy. A little quirky. An interesting story, but nothing more. Now, in the midst of the 2025-25 NBA preseason, I’m coming to a realization that evokes a mix of exhilaration and terror I’m not sure I’m mentally prepared to deal with.

The most physically gifted basketball player that the league has EVER seen—argue with a wall, but this is true—has the mental acumen of an all-time great.

When this thought first snuck its way into my head, I discarded it without a second thought. “Sure,” I said, “We knew he was great. But not yet..right? The league has YEARS until Wemby’s full wrath is unleashed.”

Well, I was wrong. I think he’s arrived, and I’m almost certain the situation is more dire than we could’ve ever imagined. Currently, Wembanyama is listed at a gargantuan 7’4”, which ties him with Grizzlies’ center Zach Edey for the highest mark in the league. In reality, this number is most likely an approximation—a coping mechanism for the rest of us. There’s a chance he’s much taller—at least by a few inches. With a 7’10” wingspan and the flexibility of a sideshow contortionist, his mere presence on the court closes the paint to opposing offenses.

Then, there’s his playstyle. It’s unfathomable that a player with his physical specifications should have the lateral quickness and deep-strike capabilities of a point guard, while possessing the shot-blocking instincts and defensive acumen of an all-time great center. Last season, in 46 games, Wembanyama blocked 3.6 shots per game, a slight tick down from the 3.8 he recorded as a rookie. His block percentage of 10.5% was first among all players. When excluding those who played less than 20 minutes per night, the second-place finisher was Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who, at 7.6%, Wembanyama cleared by nearly three whole points.

At the advice of the Spurs’ coaching staff, Wembanyama increased his three-point volume from 5.5 to a staggering 8.8 threes per night, which was first among all players with a listed height of 7-feet or taller. While Lauri Markkanen was a close second in this regard at 8.5 attempts per night, you’d have to drop the volume to 6.0 attempts to find the third-place finisher, Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite this dramatic uptick in volume, which pulled him away from the basket and forced him into uncomfortable and unfamiliar situations, Wemby’s efficiencies increased across the board. His three-point percentage climbed from 32.5% as a rookie to 35.2% as a sophomore, while his field goal percentage increased from 46.5% to 47.6% as well.

Not only did his shooting splits climb, but the overall consistency of his production did as well. In his rookie season (2023-24), Wembanyama scored less than 20 points in 30 of his 71 appearances (42.2%). This past year, despite playing in just 46 games, this number plummeted to just 28.3%. What’s more, he scored 30 or more points 12 times this past season, as opposed to 11 such games as a rookie. Again, this is despite playing in 25 fewer games.

Toss all of these ingredients in a bag and let them marinate, and you’re left with the conclusion that there is no precedent upon which we can base a realistic ceiling for Wembanyama’s ascent. As a fan of any team that doesn’t employ Wembanyama’s services, there’s a chance that we may be entering into a territory of terror and torture from which we won’t emerge for a decade. Maybe more.

It’s a frightening thought, but then I return to Wembanyama’s off-season training with the Shaolin monks. Some may see it as a gimmick, tied more to publicity than to the results it will yield. I am not in this camp. When I look into the eyes of Victor Wembanyama, my stomach drops with feelings of unsettling familiarity.

Dread.

Hopelessness.

Inevitability.

It’s the same drive that made Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant the fiercest competitors of their respective eras, and therefore what made them such indomitable forces. They understood their greatness—as Wembanyama understands the unique opportunity before him. But, more than that, they had an insatiable hunger to externalize the drive within them, to transform it into suffering, and to inflict that suffering on all those who wished to deny them the rightful fruits of their preordained legacy. As it stands, that throne is empty, waiting for the next in the lineage to seize power.

Victor Wembanyama is that heir, and he’s coming. Not next year, or the year after that. But now. And he’s not waiting for anybody. While the rest of the Spurs roster may be a few years away from being title-ready, their wagon is already hitched to the brightest star in basketball. Even without a star-laden supporting cast to aid his ascension, Wembanyama possesses the unique physical and mental fortitude to carry a team beyond its natural limitations.

Based solely on the exceptionality of their 21-year-old leader, my expectations for the San Antonio Spurs are unreasonably high for the 2025-26 season. Currently, FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Spurs’ win total at 44.5 wins, which is 8th in the Western Conference. While they undoubtedly occupy an inferior tier to the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, and Timberwolves, the conversation begins when we reach that 5th seed.

Could the Spurs be better than the Lakers this season? Their top-end talent is arguably comparable, and with LeBron’s age and Ayton’s less-than-untrustworthy track record, it’s a possibility. After Los Angeles, Wembanyama is inarguably the best top-end piece of the remaining Western Conference field. Coupled with their youth—playing into the adage that youthful naivety can obscure many pressures of winning—the Spurs are in strong contention to vault the play-in and land as a top-six seed in the conference.

If this happens, and Wembanyama has the statistical season that I predict he will, he could be in contention for multiple pieces of hardware. In the likely event that he reaches the 55-game threshold, the 2025-26 Defensive Player of the Year is his award to lose. After that, the sky’s the limit.

There are only a handful of players who could feasibly take home the MVP award in May, and Wembanyama is firmly on that list. His current odds to win the award, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, are at 18-to-1, which is 5th in the league. Ahead of him, and the only four players with odds shorter than 10-to-1, are—in order from shortest to longest odds—Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic.

Among this group, Jokic (3x), Antetokounmpo (2x), and Gilgeous-Alexander (1x) have all won the award before. From a narrative perspective, this gives Wembanyama and Doncic a leg up to win what has historically been a narrative-driven award. Then, between Wembanyama and Doncic, the Frenchman has the advantage of not playing alongside LeBron James. Even at 40 years old, the value that LeBron adds to the Lakers on a nightly basis inherently detracts from the value that Doncic is required to provide. The only way to subvert this diffusion of value is to finish as a top two seed in the West. This season, those slots are safeguarded by the dominant Thunder and resurgent Nuggets,

That leaves Wembanyama, who has a chance to be one of the league’s top scorers, in addition to being its most dominant defensive repellant. Last season, he averaged 24.3 points on 18.6 shots per game. His volume ranked 15th in the league, while his scoring ranked 21st. As mentioned, this shift in volume was accompanied by a shift in emphasis toward three-point shooting. This season, the next natural progression in Wembanyama’s game is at the free-throw line.

Despite dominating in the restricted area, where he shot 75.4% on 4.5 attempts per game, Wembanyama only averaged 3.4 free throw attempts per game—a downtick from his rookie season (2023-24), when he averaged 4.1. This was 52nd in the league, and equal to the likes of Jalen Green and Coby White.

If Wemby wants to take another leap in his offensive game this season, it will be at the stripe. This will put further pressure on the paint, thereby opening up more opportunities from behind the arc, and rendering him officially and unequivocally unguardable.

We are approaching Wembanyama’s final form. Defensive Player of the Year. MVP. Cementing himself as one of the most dominant players ever to touch a basketball. Many have predicted it to be on the horizon, but I believe that horizon to be right before us. The Victor Wembanyama experience has arrived, and it’s just as terrifying as we all feared.

But the scariest part?

We’re still witnessing the worst version of Victor Wembanyama that we’ll ever see.

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“Can I Sell You on the Phoenix Suns?”

I’ve test run this question on many of my classmates and peers over the past few weeks. Consensus? I’m a lunatic.

This is a completely justified reaction.

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The Phoenix Suns were nothing short of a dumpster fire last season, flaming out of the Western Conference playoff race with such ferocity that it initiated an urgent firesale of their most valuable assets, during which they promised to pay their 3^rd leading scorer $20 million a year for the next 5 seasons if he promised to never come back. Needless to say, the proverbial “Sun” has long set on what was a burgeoning hotbed of youth and success just a half-decade ago.

Now, with a backlog of dead money on the books, no discernible draft capital, and no apparent means of recouping these assets, the Suns have been unanimously condemned to an unavoidable Age of Darkness by fans and media alike.

But what if we’ve got it all wrong? What if the Phoenix Suns are…Dare I say…Fun? Competitive? Maybe even…both?

I know, I’m talking like a madman. What’s more, I acknowledge that to follow me onto this ledge is to reject all rational instincts of the knowledgeable NBA fan. However, I refuse to take this journey alone, and by clicking on this article and reading this far, you have taken the first step toward joining me.

Embarking on this expedition requires a multi-step process of acclimation, so as to avoid overloading your senses with the new reality I plan to lay before you. First, we have to cleanse the sour aftertaste from last year’s Suns. They stunk. We know this! And no, I don’t trust Matt Ishbia more than the next guy (and the next guy doesn’t trust him at all!).

However, the great thing about the start of a new season—perhaps the BEST possible news for fans of the Phoenix Suns—is that last season ceases to exist. It’s gone! Wipe it clean, with whatever sanitary products you have on hand, being EXTRA careful not to leave any trace, and get prepared to start anew. Now that you and I are working together on this project, we must agree to mutually renounce any and all remnants of the 2024-25 NBA season.

Next, and perhaps most crucially, we must agree on one vital fact. This is, while the Phoenix Suns undoubtedly whiffed on Kevin Durant’s entrance, they pretty much nailed his exit.

In February of 2023, the Suns sent a 26-year-old Mikal Bridges and a whopping 5 1^st Round picks to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for the four remaining years of an already 34-year-old Kevin Durant. Just a year removed from an NBA Finals berth, the message behind this move was as clear then as it remains today: they needed to win immediately, even if it meant mortgaging one of the most successful—albeit slightly stalled—youth movements in recent Western Conference history

It feels hard to believe that the Durant era in Phoenix began just three seasons ago. Since its inception, the entire extravaganza has been an exhausting whirlwind of “What the Fuck!”’s and “Hey, that’s not smart!!” s, which have recently come to dominate the lexicon of Suns’ faithful. After falling in the second round of the 2023 playoffs to the Denver Nuggets in 6 games, the Suns traded an injured Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and 11 total picks for then-Wizards star Bradley Beal, who was to be owed upwards of $160 million over the ensuing 4 seasons.

Unsurprisingly, the Suns would soon come to find out that their issue wasn’t, in fact, the lack of a third superstar, but rather that their 5^th and 6^th options in a 2^nd round playoff series were Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne, both of whom avergaed over 24 minutes per game.

The following season, Shamet and Payne were replaced in their roles by the equally unappealing duo of Eric Gordon and Jusuf Nurkic. Needless to say, Durant’s tenure in Phoenix never got off the runway. Despite winning 49 games and finishing 6^th in the Western Conference, Phoenix was swept out of the 1^st Round of the 2024 playoffs by Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In the deciding Game 4, KD and Devin Booker unleashed a lethal display of high-level shot making, combining for 82 points on 65.7% from the floor. Unfortunately, the three-man bench rotation of Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, and Nassir Little was not up to the task, mustering just 10 points as a unit. This would be Durant’s last playoff game in a Phoenix Suns uniform.

Now, in September of 2025, whatever window the Suns envisioned when they traded for Durant is now closed, heavily boarded with plywood, and the house all but abandoned. This summer, Kevin Durant all but forced his way to the Houston Rockets, from whom the Suns extracted Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and five picks—three of which turned into Khaman Maluach (10^th), Rasheer Fleming (31^st), and Kobe Brea (41^st) in this past draft.

Evidently seeking a clean break, Phoenix decided it was time to show Bradley Beal the door as well. Trapped under the clutches of his stringent “No Trade Clause”, they were forced to offer him the aforementioned lucrative severance package of $20 million annually through the 2030 off-season.

Remember, this story has a happy ending, and it all has to do with the return received from the Kevin Durant deal. Though situationally independent from that magical 2021 roster, this current iteration of the Phoenix Suns bears a few striking similarities to their predecessors.

First, and the one for which I am the most excited, is the return of Devin Booker to his post as team Alpha. In the years following their Finals loss, the Suns spent considerable effort in pairing Booker with stars of comparable scoring potency, with the assumption that a lighter scoring load would increase his efficiency, as well as the team’s offensive output as a whole.

Instead, it put Booker in a cage, relegating one of the league’s most dynamic scorers to the role of offensive initiator. Now, with the exits of Durant and Beal, Booker returns to the role in which he is both most comfortable and best suited. What’s more, this restoration of the pecking order allows his teammates to slot into roles more conducive to their own natural, respective strengths—the first of which is recent acquisition Jalen Green.

Green will be the team’s second scoring option and secondary ball-handler, likely staggering minutes with Booker and assuming ball-handler responsibilities for the second unit. In this role, I’m optimistic that the 5^th-year guard will have leeway to develop greatly without drowning him in responsibility. Expelled from the hard-nosed school of Ime Udoka, Green brings a passing hint of winning DNA without the delegatory burden he was shackled with back in Houston, where there was simply too much demand for the ball and not enough supply for Green to blossom.

Next—and please refrain from breaking out the pitchforks just yet—you AND I need to believe that Dillon Brooks can fill the same shoes as Chris Paul did so demonstratively in 2021. To ignore his divisive exterior is to see Brooks for who he truly is, and that’s one of the most effective floor-raisers of the last decade. Starting his career with Memphis in 2017-18, the Grizzlies’ return to prominence directly overlaps with Brooks’s emergence as a leader in the locker room.

Even before the arrival of Ja Morant, the Grizzlies improved incrementally with each passing season, anchored by their hard-nosed wing enforcer. It was only when the well of winning ran dry that Brooks’s eccentricities were twisted and mangled into something ugly. Attributing the lion’s share of the team’s struggles to Brooks’s shoulders, Memphis publicly denounced the prospect of re-signing him in the 2023 off-season.

In swept the Houston Rockets, who showered Brooks with an embarrassment of riches in pursuit of his services as a veteran cornerstone of their youth movement. The Rockets were coming off a 22-60 finish, in which they were the second-worst team in the West and the third-worst in the NBA. The Brooks courtship and eventual signing followed a systemic purge that signified an immediate and unabashed commitment to winning. Coupled with new coach Ime Udoka and a bevy of young talent, the Rockets improved to 41-41 in 2024, then to an emphatic 52-30 this past season. Once again, it was Brooks’ presence that propelled a once-faltering franchise into a warp-speed rebuild, accelerating their timeline on a scale that not even the most optimistic Rockets believer could have imagined.

Having extracted the desired fruits of his presence, Houston sold high on Brooks, packaging him with Jalen Green and 5 picks en route to victory in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. Now in Phoenix, he will have yet another opportunity to prove his worth. And, frankly, history frowns on those who bet against Dillon Brooks.

A third pertinent parallel between the Suns of the past and of the present is the current competency of their center room. Almost overnight, last year’s most untraversable hurdle has morphed into a formidable strength. During the second half of last season and into the early months of summer, Phoenix embarked on a midnight raid of the Charlotte Hornets’ most prolific and effective bigs, Mark Williams and Nick Richards. While neither Williams nor Richards has quite the upside of a younger DeAndre Ayton, who’s to say that 2021 DeAndre Ayton can’t be replicated in the aggregate? Barring injury, Phoenix will now have versatility and flexibility at the center position to do just that, adding a luxury that the city and franchise haven’t experienced in years. And, while neither Williams nor Richards has Ayton’s gravity on the offensive end, their efficiency at and around the basket will open up the floor in ways that Booker and Green can exploit.

The darkest cloud looming over this iteration of the Phoenix Suns is the uncertainty attached to much of their bench. Last season, rookies Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro were two bright spots in an otherwise depressing display. For the Suns to be competitive this season, one of Dunn or Ighodaro will need to take a sizable offensive leap. Conceivably, both players will spend the bulk of their time with the second unit, navigating substantial minutes without Booker or Green on the floor. These stretches are sink or swim for the Phoenix Suns. To avoid the impending cinder-block-in-ocean scenario, one of Ighodaro OR Dunn will need to improve upon their offensive efficiency from all three levels while welcoming an expanding role. If nothing else, a leap of this caliber from either player would be a welcome proof of life to the fans and front office alike.

Below them sit the rookies: Khaman Maluach, Rasheer Fleming, and Koby Brea. Growing pains will define their highs just as much as they will their lows over the coming months. This season will be one of experimentation, through which the extent of any appropriate optimism toward the Suns’ immediate future will quickly crystallize. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely that the raw upside of Maluach and Fleming, or the adjustments required from the sharpshooting Brea, will elude these young Suns.

Where does this leave us?

The most daunting obstacle between the Suns and the lofty goals I’ve laid out for them is the congestion of talent in the Western Conference. Based on the talent level and continuity of their rosters alone, there are 6 teams that I believe to be—barring catastrophe—indisputably better than the Suns next season: the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Outside of these 6 teams, there exists an amorphous landscape of undefined expectations in which the Western Conference’s “Middle Class” will grapple with one another for play-in positioning.

The next available slot after this upper crust is the 7^th seed. To claim it, Phoenix would have to emerge superior to all five of Golden State, Dallas, Memphis, Portland, and San Antonio. That’s to say, the road does not get much easier by simply eliminating the top shelf of competition. However, it’s a road that could feasibly be traveled. In fact, I’d argue that Phoenix has a better chance of resisting implosion than most of its middle class contemporaries.

With the exception of Portland, each of the six teams in the Western Conference’s middle class is reliant on the uninhibited health of one or two given superstars. Among the respective superstars of these six teams, for reasons I lay out below, Devin Booker is the best suited to withstand the pressures of an 82-game season.

To start, the Warriors live and die by their life source, Stephen Curry, who will turn 38 years old in March.

Dallas is already awaiting the rehabilitation of Kyrie Irving’s ACL. In the meantime, they rely on the availability of a 32-year-old Anthony Davis, who is no spring chicken in his own right.

After trading Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic, the Memphis Grizzlies need a fully healthy season from Ja Morant to buoy their offense—the same Ja Morant who has played in just 59 games over the previous two seasons.

Finally, San Antonio awaits the return of Victor Wembanyama, who was robbed of the second half of his season when doctors diagnosed him with Deep Vein Thrombosis in February. While likely just a stroke of random misfortune, Wembanyama’s gargantuan frame nevertheless poses an amplified risk of injury.

Meanwhile, Devin Booker is coming off a season in which he played and started in 75 games, marking the fourth time in his career in which he’s eclipsed the 70-game threshold. Only twice in nine seasons has Booker failed to clear the 55 games, the established bottom line for award consideration. He’s a proverbial Iron Man, a trend which I don’t anticipate will be bucked by the adversity that comes with an experimental roster.

If there’s one constant to be expected from each NBA season, it’s the unpredictability of basketball. Every year, I compile what are supposed to be educated predictions for the upcoming season, only to watch them fall flat before Thanksgiving. Breakout stars can accelerate timelines and shift the trajectories of entire franchises, while a slippery court or awkward landing can derail the ambitions of the league’s top contenders.

In the NBA, there is no such thing as a certainty—it simply does not and cannot exist. Therefore, I refuse to accept the supposed certainty that the Suns are doomed to be the armpit of the league. What’s more, I’m not completely comfortable with the suggestion that they haven’t improved upon last year’s trainwreck. Sure, they lost a lot of big names. But this season isn’t going to be about who they lost. It’ll be about who they gained, and the new identity that this revitalized organization has a chance to create for itself.

I don’t believe in Matt Ishbia, but I believe in Devin Booker. I don’t believe in Matt Ishbia, but I will always believe in Dillon Brooks. And I do NOT believe in Matt Ishbia, but I’ll be damned if you tell me that the Jalen Green experience has run its course. The Suns are going to be FUN this season…but more than that, they’re going to be good. Not great, but GOOD. In six months, when they’re competing for a play-in spot and the front office is taking the undeserved victory lap of a blind man shooting a duck, I want to return to this moment, this ARTICLE, as my early buy-in to the new look Phoenix Suns. As my acquaintance on this journey, I would be more than happy to book you all a ticket as well.

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Then there are the teams in the middle, whose self-expectations are rocketing skyward in a ceaseless series of crescendos. For the following three teams, anything is possible. Leaving past failures in the rearview mirror, these three teams have an excellent chance to reverse their fortunes and capitalize on the opportunities provided by the 2025-26 season.

I don’t mean to rain on their respective parades—there’s a strong chance that each of these three teams hit their ceilings. However promising as they may be, each has detrimental flaws that could rapidly unravel their seasons.

These three teams are the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and the Atlanta Hawks. Let’s dig into the weeds…

Detroit Pistons

Last Season: 44-38, 6^th in the Eastern Conference

Playoffs: Lost in the 1^st Round to the Knicks (4-2)

Last season, the Pistons were the league’s most heralded feel-good story. Out from under the thumb of Joe Dumars and with an injection of veteran experience, Detroit leapt out of the league’s basement with a thirty-win improvement from their abysmal 14-win season in 2024.

Cade Cunningham, the top pick in 2021 and the team’s cornerstone talent, improved in every statistical category. In 70 games, he averaged 26.1 points, 9.1 assists, and 6.1 rebounds on 46.9% from the field and 35.6% from three—all of which were career highs. Jaden Ivey, who missed all but 30 games with a broken left fibula, is poised to build on what was panning out to be a breakout 2025 campaign. Ausar Thompson has healed from a scary bout of blood clots and is a leading candidate to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player (10^th at +2500, according to BetMGM). With their pieces coming together, why am I lower on them to build off of last year’s success?

To start, four of their top ten leaders in minutes played from the 2024-25 season are no longer on the roster. Not only did these players eat significant minutes, but they also starred in roles crucial to the Pistons’ success.

After getting scooped up at the deadline, Dennis Schroder assumed the role of backup point guard. Though his efficiencies from the field were…subpar…the reprieve he gave an overworked and overtasked Cade Cunningham was invaluable. With Schroder’s off-season departure to Sacramento, these duties now fall to a bevy of unproven young guards.

The only true backup point guard in Detroit is Marcus Sasser, the 24-year-old who is entering his third year of professional basketball. While I’m a massive believer in the long-term upside of Sasser’s play, I worry if he’s developed enough to fill such sizeable shoes.

Before Schroder’s arrival last season, Sasser averaged 5.8 points and 2.3 assists, while shooting 45.8% from the field and 33.7% from three—none of which are viable for a backup point guard on a winning team, even in the Eastern Conference. In fact, it was Sasser’s inability to fill the role that set the circumstances for Schroder’s arrival in the first place. Heading into next season, Sasser is too unproven for me to bank on him as the everyday facilitator of the second unit offense.

The other plausible candidate for this role is Jaden Ivey, who was enjoying career-highs across the board before suffering a freak leg injury on New Year’s Day. Through 30 games, Ivey posted 17.6 ppg to go along with 4.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists, while shooting 46% from the field and 40.9% from three. It was due to this welcome leap that the Pistons found themselves in contention for the first time in recent memory.

However, it was in a secondary ball-handling role where Ivey thrived, not as the lead man. It seems irresponsible on behalf of Detroit’s long-term future to risk rerouting Ivey’s upward trajectory, simply to compensate for certain short-term roster deficits. Now, that’s not to say that the Pistons won’t run this gambit—on the contrary, I believe it to be the most likely scenario, considering the gravity of their ambitions for this upcoming season. That being said, it’s a risk that carries several layers of downside, any of which could derail their postseason chances.

The final and most significant loss suffered by Detroit this off-season was that of Malik Beasley, the subject of an intrusive league-wide gambling probe. With these dark clouds on the horizon, contract negotiations to bring Beasley back aboard stalled, exiling him into the empty void of free agency, where he still resides.

The allegations against the sharpshooter have since proven to be unfounded. Nonetheless, the Pistons’ trepidations have resulted in relinquished Bird rights and subsequently an eroding competitive advantage in their attempts to reel Beasley back into the fold. With his return looking less likely by the day, the holes that the absence of Beasley would create have become wider and more existential.

Last season, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr.—who have since departed to Denver—combined for 487 of the team’s 1,051 made three-pointers—that’s 46.3% of Detroit’s total production from beyond the arc. This concerns me for a variety of reasons, without even mentioning my lack of confidence in their replacement, Duncan Robinson. My primary concern is Cade Cunningham’s ability to continue his torrid scoring proficiency with vastly deteriorated spacing. If Cade—who was third on the team last season with 149 made threes—can’t navigate these tight waters with the same proficiency, it could send the Pistons straight into a sophomore slump.

We see it across all sports—teams who take the league by storm in their rookie season begin to become the object of their opponents’ game plans and thereby take a slight step backward. Last year, nobody expected Detroit to be competitive, and therefore were rendered disarmed by the impact of their sudden two-way firepower.

This year will be different. Aided by an injury-riddled conference, the Pistons have found themselves as the third-best team in the East among those who have retained their core of stars. Therefore, the target on their backs has increased exponentially. This could manifest itself in one of two ways: Either they rise to the moment and capitalize on a golden opportunity to eclipse the Eastern Conference, or—more likely—they stumble their way through the natural growing pains of a young and clunkily-constructed team.

San Antonio Spurs

Last Season: 34-48, 13^th in the Western Conference

Playoffs: N/A

The Spurs suffer from a lone affliction, and it’s the best ailment to have—their star player is so good, yet so young, that the performance of the team tends to lag a few paces behind the expectation set for them. Last year, Victor Wembanyama was on pace to win an uncontested Defensive Player of the Year award, while climbing into legitimate MVP consideration. When he was sidelined with deep vein thrombosis in February, Stephon Castle—their 4^th overall pick in 2024—kicked his production into another gear, running away with Rookie of the Year honors. At the deadline, the Spurs traded for De’Aaron Fox without having to surrender any coveted assets. Thanks to a poor record and impeccable fortune in the draft lottery, San Antonio was able to select Dylan Harper, the 2^nd overall pick and the undispute^d 2^nd-best player in his class. With every passing day, more wind continues to fill the sails of this rising dynasty. So why am I so hesitant toward their immediate outlook?

The purpose of this list is to caution an over-optimistic approach to the immediate futures of teams who—for whatever reason—may not be ready yet. That’s not to say that their time won’t come. Victor Wembanyama is on a short list of players who can single-handedly change the long-term fortunes of a franchise. However, the Western Conference is a Gladiator’s Arena, in which the number of teams with playoff aspirations is in the double digits. For the Spurs, I’m skeptical that such an inexperienced team, reliant on the immediate production of raw young talent, can successfully navigate these daunting waters on their first try.

A legitimate argument to the contrary is that the respective accelerations of regular-season and postseason success are not linear. Last year’s Rockets are a good example. After finishing the previous season with a record of 41-41, they springboarded to 52-30 and the 2^nd seed in the West. Many argue that, with a player as talented as Wembanyama, the Spurs are poised to make a similar leap—maybe not as high as the 2^nd seed, but definitely into mid-level playoff contention.

This claim is legitimate. Historical precedent suggests that this jump occurs with at least one, and possibly two, teams every season. However, I would exercise caution before anointing San Antonio as this year’s choice to make a significant leap. In the past half-decade, the vast majority of breakout teams have had a common calling card: elite defense. Last year, the Rockets were able to withstand league-average offensive firepower with stifling team defense, finishing 5^th in league-wide defensive rating (110.3).

This kind of pressure does not arise out of thin air. Before making their leap, the Rockets were 10^th in defensive rating, while Amen Thompson—their primary defensive game-breaker—was still just a rookie. While Victor Wembanyama is a generational, game-altering defensive talent, the Spurs remain one of the league's worst defensive teams. This past season, they finished 25^th in the NBA with a Defensive Rating of 116.3. Even before Wembanyama’s medical complications, they were just 19^th with a Defensive Rating of 114.1.

Except for their young French superstar, the Spurs’ core is not built on the backs of defensive stalwarts. According to Dunks&Threes’ Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus metric, only 4 of their top 13 projected minutes leaders are anticipated to finish as a top 50th percentile defender next season—Wembanyama (99^th pct), Jeremy Sochan (80^th pct), Luke Kornet (78^th pct), and rookie Carter Bryant (53^rd pct). Of these four players, only Bryant—the rookie—is well-equipped to the conference’s plethora of elite ball-handlers. Unless their offense can take such a precipitous leap to compensate for their deficiencies, the Spurs will continue to lose in the aggregate.

Another reason as to why I’m hesitant about the Spurs next season is for the sheer quantity of “firsts” that would have to occur for them to reach a top-six seed, which is where many optimists view the bottom of their ceiling to be.

To start, Victor Wembanyama would have to leap from phenom to all-world talent. This one is very plausible. However, this improvement includes leadership and the ability to elevate a winning basketball team. For this reason, Wemby’s leap is dependent on whether the “firsts” of his teammates come to fruition.

Two of those teammates are Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant, their two talented first-round picks. For the Spurs to reach their desired next step, both Harper and Bryant will need to contribute immediately—and contribute in ways that I’m unsure whether they’re prepared for. Carter Bryant is just 20 years old, while Harper has yet to escape his teenage years. For both to play an immediately impactful role, usurping the learning curve that comes with inexperience, is rather unlikely—possible, but difficult to imagine. When factoring age and inexperience with the gauntlet of competition they’ll have to slay on their road to a top-six seed, I find it difficult to justify hitching too strong of hopes to the respective wagons of Bryant and Harper.

Next, and perhaps most crucially, several key performers will need to elevate their defensive buy-in to another stratosphere. This ties back to the persuasive argument that the Spurs are yet to develop a core with a repeatable, reliable calling card. Much blame for this current deficiency can be placed on their wings and smaller guards. From last year’s minutes leaders, no guard has a positive Crafted Defensive Plus-Minus, with the closest being De’Aaron Fox at -0.6.

Dylan Harper projects to fill this need, but he will struggle defensively out of the gate as all rookies do. Stephon Castle—last year’s 4^th overall pick and Rookie of the Year winner—is still leaps and bounds away from developing into a positive defensive factor. This season, improvement for Castle would mean reaching league average, taking the next step toward his full potential without making any unforeseen leaps.

Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson—the Spurs’ longest tenured wings—are facing a separate challenge. Undersized for their positions, neither player has much room to develop as defenders. Therefore, their contribution to the Spurs’ leap will be on the offensive end. However, I’m skeptical that their respective play styles can contribute to winning basketball, especially in the volume that they are currently expected to produce. Last season, Devin Vassell averaged 16.3 PPG, with a marked uptick following Wembanyama’s health complications. Johnson, on the other hand, saw his scoring dip to 12.3 PPG, down from 15.7 PPG in 2023-24 and 22 PPG in 2022-23.

This season, I expect their respective roles to be further diminished, as the new wave of talent continues to be ushered in with increasing fervor. Eventually, the Spurs’ leap into contention will coincide with a severed relationship between the franchise and the Vassell-Johnson tandem. However, this can only occur once their young talent is ready to bloom.

This progression isn’t scheduled to occur for several years. In this time, Victor Wembanyama will inevitably develop into one of the three best players in the entire league. Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, and Stephon Castle will be given room and runway to explore their potential. At the same time, veteran pieces like Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson will be continuously cycled out until the Spurs find just the right pieces to complete their puzzle. Along this current trajectory, the future is very bright—blinding, even. However, it would be malpractice to unnaturally accelerate this timeline and risk messing up a golden opportunity to eventually contend in the West. I believe that the Spurs know this to be true—and for this reason, I’m lower on the Spurs upside for this season than perhaps some others may be.

Atlanta Hawks

Last Season: 40-42, 8^th in the Eastern Conference

Playoffs: N/A

The entire basis of the much-anticipated Hawks Renaissance lives on paper…none of it has been proven. When placing this point at the crux of my argument against the 2025-26 Hawks, I wondered to myself if this is a lazy rationale. Does not every team that takes on new talent in the off-season bear the same mark of uncertainty?

Usually, this is true. When a team goes through dramatic off-season reshuffling—as is undoubtedly the case in Atlanta—the changes lead to some standard growing pains. My primary concern with the Hawks has nothing to do with this acclimation period. Instead, my trepidations stem from both the volume and heft of the questions posed by their current roster.

Let’s start with the head of the snake. In 2021, Trae Young put Atlanta on his back and carried the city to the Eastern Conference Finals, igniting hope in his ability to be the backbone of a championship contender. Since that year, this flame has dwindled to mere embers, with many questioning whether the Hawks have exhausted the maximum potential of a team led by Trae Young.

General sentiment suggests that the next 1-2 years will be the final opportunity for Trae Young to prove his ability to lead an NBA champion. Unfortunately, whether or not he achieves these levels of success will largely be determined by the viability of his supporting cast. Entering year eight, certain elements of Trae’s game have reached their absolute pinnacle.

For one, he will never be an all-league defender. His undersized, slight frame and limited athletic ability place a finite cap over the extent to which he can contribute on this end of the floor. Instead, it will come down to the Hawks’ ability to mask his deficiencies with elite defensive wings, who can foreseeably relieve some of this added pressure while allowing Young to remain a potent offensive engine.

Jalen Johnson is one such wing who has been developing in the Hawks’ system for the last few seasons. Whether due to injury or inexperience, his development has taken the form of a top-secret project that remains unseen, unheard, and unspoken about outside of select NBA circles. However, after a torrid start to last season in which he averaged 19 PPG and 10 TRB, buzz began to circulate over whether it was in fact Johnson’s development, not Trae’s, that would determine the Hawks’ chances at contention.

The presumption with Jalen Johnson is that there is one, or maybe two, significant leaps left in Johnson’s game that will skyrocket the Hawks into another stratosphere. While I was initially a strong believer in Johnson’s vast, untapped potential, I have recently taken a more skeptical stance. My first qualm with Johnson is regarding the shoulder injury that stole over half the season from the hyper-athletic point-forward. While I admit that the availability of Johnson won’t wholly determine the Hawks’ success, their hopes at contention exist in a state of such fragility that even the slightest derailment could spell catastrophe for the Eastern Conference hopefuls. And, while one injury doesn’t make you injury-prone, per se, it’s a sizeable step in the wrong direction.

Second, I worry about his three-point shot. Despite having a breakout start to the season, Johnson shot just over 31% from three last year. It requires a special caliber of athlete to overcome such a pivotal gap in skillset, and the jury is still out on whether Johnson fits this bill. Additionally, while there is room for improvement, Johnson has presumably spent the brunt of his off-season conditioning his shoulder for a return to play. In the wake of such a pertinent injury, I question whether Johnson had the time or resources to iron out this rather destructive chink in an otherwise unblemished suit of armor.

To supplement the respective limitations of both Young and Johnson, Atlanta enlisted the aid of Minnesota Timberwolves forward Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Alexander-Walker projects to fill some significant schematic gaps for the Hawks with his elite wing defense and serviceable catch-and-shoot potential. In the NBA world, the signing was heralded with jealous admiration, but also viewed as thievery in an otherwise shallow free-agent class.

Considering their aggressive pursuit of contention in an injury-riddled conference, I was a massive proponent of this signing. I still am. However, I’m unsure about the scalability of his game in the unfortunate scenario in which he’s forced to outperform his current expectations. If the Hawks can avoid the injury pitfalls that have plagued them in years past, Alexander-Walker will be a fantastic addition.

The third addition, and one of the biggest names moved this off-season, is Kristaps Porzingis. If Kristaps can remain healthy, he has the potential to be a game-changing talent. As we saw with the Celtics in 2024, his ability to both stretch the floor and defend the rim at an elite level is a combination of skills that can elevate a team into championship contention.

However, the looming question surrounding Kristaps regards his availability, which has earned more potent descriptors than “unreliable”. Last season, Porzingis played in 42 games, which were bracketed by two equally baffling injuries. The first, an injury to his lower left leg in Game 2 of the 2024 Finals cost him the entire off-season, as well as the first 17 games of the 2024-25 season. Once he returned, Porzingis phased in and out of the lineup, peaking briefly in mid-March before evaporating into a cloud of dust in the playoffs.

There’s a chance that Kristaps can return to his former self. At 30 years old, his prime hasn’t completely come to a close. What worries me is the lack of depth at the center position in the event of a Doomsday injury. When the Latvian behemoth retreats to the sideline, his replacements consist of Onyeka Okongwu—who I expect to achieve personal-best production—followed by Eli N’Diaye, Mouhamed Gueye, and N’Faly Dante.

The latter three centers own 43 total NBA appearances—39 of which belong to Mo Gueye, who is admittedly their next most competent bench big. And, while the positivity emanating from the Hawks’ camp overreaches my expectations, I can’t help but overlook the fragility of the Hawks’ current position.

The utopia they’ve built is gorgeous—open fields, boundless resources, and a content population. But it rests on a fault line. The slightest disturbance could decimate their present and drastically reroute their future. Kristaps is the most volatile piece of the puzzle, but danger could sprout from any source. Was Jalen Johnson’s injury a fluke or a cause for concern? Who backs up Trae Young? (Bueller?...Bueller??) The question-to-answer ratio is high enough to warrant considerable concern. While I’m still confident in the Hawks being competitive, my signed vote of confidence is henceforth written in pencil rather than pen.

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In acknowledgment of my own lack of prescience, the candidates will be separated into categories rather than tiers. Only one section, “The Most Likely Candidates”, will rationalize a higher sense of confidence in these picks. Otherwise, the criteria will be firm and unflinching, adhering to a strict set of bylaws that will under no circumstances be compromised.

Class of 2026: The Most Likely Candidates

Not only do these players have a chance to break into the next echelon of NBA achievement, but an All-NBA leap is becoming less of a hope than an expectation.

Chet Holmgren

Last season: 15.0 PTS / 8.0 REB / 2.0 AST / 49% FG% / 37.9% 3PT% / 75.4% FT%

What if Chet Holmgren never got hurt last season? Where would we be today? Would we even be having this conversation, or would he already have an All-NBA anointment under his belt? These questions are unanswerable, of course, but they provide a good segue into the strongest points of contention for Holmgren’s spot on this list.

First, Chet could have been an All-NBA selection last season, where he was replaced instead by his teammate and co-Robin to SGA’s Batman, Jalen Williams. In nine healthy games before breaking his hip, Holmgren was averaging 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks on 51.9% from the field and 40% from three. Obviously, this sample size is far too small to project across an 82-game sample size. However, it provides a glimpse into what he could’ve evolved into without the hindrance of such a devastating physical setback.

Next season, the Thunder will once again be atop the Western Conference. In all likelihood, Chet will be at the center of this effort, elite in his role of rim protector and third option. Building off of last season’s championship run, there’s a strong possibility that he garners enough hype to match his leap in production, thereby vaulting him onto an All-NBA team.

Tyrese Maxey

Last season: 26.3 PTS / 3.3 REB / 6.1 AST / 43.7% FG% / 33.7% 3PT% / 87.9% FT%

In 52 games last season with the Bad News Sixers, Tyrese Maxey averaged a career-high 26.3 points per game. This marked consecutive seasons in which the 2024 Most Improved Player has eclipsed the 25 PPG threshold, signaling that this level of production may in fact be a sustainable expectation.

There are many “ifs” that will wholly determine the Sixers’ ceiling. If Paul George is healthy, he will be an ideal complement to Maxey’s run-and-gun style of play. If Joel Embiid can manage his own injury woes, he will command the mass attention of opposing defenses. And if everything falls into place for Philadelphia—which is a VERY big ‘if’–Tyrese Maxey will be recognized as their newly-anointed alpha.

If the pieces fall into place…

The cards need to fall favorably for these players to make their first All-NBA team. While they’re not quite knocking, these players are closer to the door than some may believe.

Amen Thompson

Last season: 14.1 PTS / 8.2 REB / 3.8 AST / 55.7% FG% / 27.5% 3PT% / 68.4% FT%

What can we expect from Amen Thompson next season? It depends on who you ask. The media thinks he’s a rising All-Star, while the Rockets faithful seem to toss his name around in GOAT conversations. I believe the truth exists somewhere in between.

With the addition of Kevin Durant, Houston finally has the late-game closer that their talented young roster demands. The spacing he provides will open the floor for Thompson’s tantalizing rim-finishing, while giving the 22-year-old some leash to develop his perimeter shot.

In addition, there will be nights in which the soon-to-be 37-year-old Durant will cede to the natural limitations of his aging body, rendering him unable to play. It’s in these moments where we will peer through the most valuable window into Thompson’s developmental trajectory. If he can continue to expand his offensive skillset, while rounding out his already dominant defensive instincts, there’s a distinct world in which Thompson leapfrogs all the way to his first All-NBA selection.

Lauri Markkanen

Last season: 19.0 PTS / 5.9 REB / 1.5 AST / 42.3% FG% / 34.6% 3PT% / 87.6% FT%

Lauri Markkanen is silently becoming one of the more mythical off-season characters in recent memory. He’s on the trade block every summer, making him an indispensable filler subject when all else has been exhausted. Last year, he completed his mandatory service in the Finnish military, the same nation for whom he now averages 40 points per game for Finland in international play. He’s simultaneously mundane and mysterious. To swipe a quote from Psych’s Shawn Spencer, he’s “an enigma wrapped in a little blonde riddle.”

This season, the Jazz will once again dwell at the bottom of the Western Conference. As a result, Lauri will have the ball in his hands on every possession. If he doesn’t, it’ll be a crime. Come April, if his production can spike as I believe he’s capable, there’s an opportunity for Markkanen to sneak onto All-NBA Third Team.

You Win, You’re in.

Winning will take a miracle…or, maybe, just an All-NBA season from these players.

LaMelo Ball

Last season: 25.2 PTS / 4.9 REB / 7.4 AST / 40.5% FG% / 33.9% 3PT% / 84.3% FT%

Last year, the Hornets were a popular choice to spring out of the league’s basement. In contract, the expectations for this iteration are remarkably grim. Frankly, I don’t get it. I say, let’s give the kids another shot. Every inch that LaMelo can dial back his…well…eccentricities…will go a mile toward earning him the accolades many had hoped he would accrue when he was selected 2^nd overall in 2021.

Melo has made an All-Star team before, a rarity on this list. This came all the way back in the 2021-22 season. Ironically, it was his only healthy season (75 games played). His flashy style and promotable personality do him many favors when we get to award season. Now, the Hornets would likely have to be a play-in team—maybe even a 6 seed—for LaMelo to earn consideration. This is far and away his most daunting obstacle. However, miracles have been known to happen, and this isn’t quite miracle territory yet. If the Hornets can find a way to be successful under Melo’s command, he will definitely garner All-NBA consideration.

Scottie Barnes

Last season: 19.3 PTS / 7.7 REB / 5.8 AST / 44.6% FG% / 27.1% 3PT% / 75.5% FT%

The Raptors have a team that’s…well…strange. Their oddities could reasonably manifest themselves positively or negatively, but I’d like to buy some land on the more optimistic side of that argument. In a perfect world, the insertion of a healthy Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley rejuvenates a destitute Raptors franchise, catapulting them into relevancy. In this world, Jakob Poeltl anchors a competent defense, while the offense contributes just enough points to eke out a winning record.

At the risk of further bludgeoning that poor, dead horse, anything is possible in the Eastern Conference. I firmly believe that this list of possibilities includes the Raptors being good. And, if this unlikely, yet undeniably plausible, scenario should come to fruition, and Barnes remains the ship’s captain, hardware will follow close behind.

Zion Williamson

Last season: 24.6 PTS / 7.2 REB / 5.3 AST / 56.7% FG% / 23.1% 3PT% / 65.6% FT%

Everyone’s writing off the Pelicans as dumpster fire. To be clear, I am too, as fading New Orleans is one of the safest preseason bets available. For the team to be competitive, Zion will need to finally realize his pre-draft expectations. For the former top pick, health struggles have been his biggest detriment, with many of these issues being self-inflicted. To this day, Stephen A. Smith’s report that he will “EAT THE TABLE” is in my rolodex of NBA Quotables. However, if he can conquer the human spirit—his body and appetite—there’s a chance that Zion finishes the season as a top five forward in basketball.

Sure, the Pelicans’ situation looks grim. This is inevitable when your front office employs both Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, the league’s most indomitable duo of dummies. However, the roster itself is not completely awful. The only glaring hole is at the center position, which could be remedied if Yves Missi is anything more than a flash in the pan. No, they won’t make the playoffs. That’s a given. They likely miss the play-in as well, but that’s where the title of this category holds its meaning: You win, you’re in. If, by the grace of God, the Pelicans stumble their way into competence, Zion will receive the spoils.

The Injury Reserve

These players have a chance, but their opportunities are largely dependent on injury luck…or lack thereof.

Ivica Zubac

Last season: 16.8 PTS / 12.6 REB / 2.7 AST / 62.8% FG% / - / 66.1% FT%

Ivica Zubac is on the rise. He’s sneaking slowly—almost imperceptibly—but surely, into the psyche of the NBA fan. His defense is sturdy…nae, stout. On this end, he’s a genuine stalwart. Last season, he took a gargantuan leap toward stardom…but the league wasn’t ready. This year, maybe—just maybe—they will be.

Whether one season as a top five-to-eight center is enough to springboard a player into all-league consideration is debatable. I’m hoping that the answer is yes, because Zubac deserves…something. Some sort of recognition of the Zubac renaissance. Not to mention, it would be an acknowledgment that his accomplishments elevated a mediocre roster to a top-six seed in a stacked Western Conference.

I considered putting him in the “You Win, You’re In” tier, but I believe that he transcends that category. He’s too talented, too consistent, and too accomplished. His importance is understated to the national media yet recognized on a larger scale by voters. Therefore, in the event of an injury-depleted pool of talented big men, Zubac will be on the short list of reserves to assume the role of All-NBA-by-default.

Jalen Johnson

Last season: 18.9 PTS / 10.0 REB / 5.0 AST / 50.0% FG% / 31.2 3PT% / 74.6% FT%

To romanticize the Jalen Johnson leap is to beat the crap out of that poor dead horse, so I’ll instead focus on my vision for the 2025-26 Hawks. Sure, Johnson will be better than ever. Health will play a role, as will his further acclimatization into increased responsibility. However, it’s in his contribution to the team where Johnson can break through into All-NBA consideration.

It’s always a risk to place a player into these conversations when they’ve never even made an All-Star Game. However, in taking this risk I am optimistic. Johnson has the potential to be an all-world defender—he’s already not half bad. Not to mention, he averaged 19 points and 10 rebounds in 32 games last season before a torn labrum took him out of the game.

With the off-season additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hawks project to be very competitive in a diluted Eastern Conference. Johnson will play an invaluable role in this success. Should they hit their ceiling, there’s a world in which Atlanta is a top two seed. The voters, as fans themselves, love a Cinderella story, and the Hawks will feed this craving. The resulting votes will be distributed between Johnson and Trae Young, with the bulk share given to the point general. However, Johnson may be able to steal enough adoration to squeak onto an All-NBA Third Team.

Derrick White

Last season: 16.4 PTS / 4.5 REB / 4.8 AST / 44.2% FG% / 38.4% 3PT% / 83.9% FT%

I’ve talked about it in previous articles, but the ceiling for Derrick White’s potential is not obvious to me. His strengths are tangible, and his weaknesses nonexistent. In terms of impact, few players contribute more meaningfully to winning than White, as reflected in nearly every advanced statistic. His defense, which is as versatile as it is suffocating, will be accentuated in the absence of Jrue Holiday. On the offensive end, few players are more efficient and reliably clutch than the Celtics’ everyman. In all aspects, he is the ultimate winner.

This season, Jayson Tatum’s absence will allow others to flourish in Boston. When plucking from the field, White is my favorite candidate to take a leap, if for no better reason than that I’m endlessly interested in how high he will rise. Whether his new opportunities translate to an All-Star or All-NBA caliber season, or whether my projections are completely awry, is in the hands of White.

Lifetime Achievement Award

In the performing arts, “Lifetime Achievement” nominations are given to actors who, despite years of high-level performance, have not yet been recognized with the highest level of accolade. For their years of service, these players could receive a preferential nod over their less-agonized peers.

Desmond Bane

Last season: 19.2 PTS / 6.1 REB / 5.3 AST / 48.4% FG% / 39.2% 3PT% / 89.4% FT%

A lot has to go right for this vision to be realized. Desmond Bane is Orlando’s third option behind Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, two young stars who are both seeking their first All-NBA selection as well. While the Magic project to be a top-3 seed in the East this season, a healthy Banchero and Wagner would receive a preferential nod over the more traveled Bane. To be clear, I am in no way insinuating that the Magic will get three All-League selections. That being said, here’s where I believe Bane could sneak into the picture.

First, Banchero and Wagner would have to play between 45 and 54 games apiece for a league-leading Magic team that has taken the East by storm—just under the threshold for consideration, but enough to keep Orlando relevant. In the wake of their limited availability, Bane is the most credited contributor on the team to reach the 55-game threshold. He would be lauded for the season’s accomplishments, both on behalf of himself and the team as a whole. Seen as crucial to Orlando’s revitalization, Bane is rewarded with his first All-NBA selection.

Jamal Murray

Last season: 21.4 PTS / 3.9 REB / 6.0 AST / 47.4% FG% / 39.3% 3PT% / 88.6% FT%

It’s time for Jamal Murray to transcend his playoff heroics to become a regular season riser. For years, the Nuggets have been held hostage by their starting point guard for the first 82 games of the season. For much of the decade, he’s been either sluggish or injured, unreliable or altogether unavailable. Yet he’s so damn good in the playoffs that they…just. can’t. let. him. GO.

With so many young West teams on the rise, the window for the Murray and Jokic duo is closing. Realistically, the Nuggets front office can’t afford to recycle a stale product in a league-wide landscape of constant regeneration. While Nikola Jokic is indispensable, Murray is not—especially when he costs upwards of $60 million a year through 2029.

This makes the quest for a second championship the only priority for Denver—and this mission starts in November, not April. Controlling your own destiny come April is the most coveted prize in the highly volatile Western Conference. With the off-season additions of Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas, Murray finds himself in a temperature-controlled environment where he can find a niche that supports this current stage in his career. Whether that be as a low-volume facilitator or a sparkplug shot-creator, the cushioning his new teammates will provide could elicit a Jamal Murray that’s outside of any iteration we’ve seen to date. For him to make an All-NBA team, the Nuggets would need to be the 1-seed in the West. Murray needs to be efficient, play serviceable defense, and elevate himself as a playmaker.

Whether or not these leaps are feasible can be debated, but for a playoff riser I’m a hopeless romantic. I want him to sail off into the sunset with at least one personal accolade, and I believe that this is the year he can get it done.

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Why the Celtics? Why now?

In Game 3 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon in pursuit of a loose ball. In an instant, the Boston Celtics were uprooted from the mountaintop, spiraling into a state of perpetual chaos that culminated in a fire-sale of the old regime.

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As the debris settles, we’re left with a roster for which there is scarce historical precedent. The closest elicited comparison is to the 2014-15 Oklahoma City Thunder, which—in the wake of Kevin Durant’s season-ending injury—were piggybacked through a forgetful season by an ill-suited and under-prepared Russell Westbrook. While the Celtics are markedly worse than that Thunder team, the diminutive pool of Eastern Conference contenders buoy Boston firmly into contention for a high-end play-in spot. Like Westbrook in 2015, the Celtics will travel as far as Brown can take them.

The lack of foundation upon which one can hope to predict the fate of the 2025-26 Boston Celtics is unparalleled. Oddly enough, this makes them one of the league’s most intriguing debates as we sludge through the dog days of August. For every question we answer, a multitude more are raised. How will Jaylen Brown look as a number one option? Could their center depth possibly be as bad as it looks? Will Chris Boucher make an All-NBA team? Using this bottomless bag of content as fuel to light my way, I embark on an effort to make sense of a situation that is entirely unpredictable.

A quick disclaimer on the Tatum injury.

Jayson Tatum will not play basketball this season. If he does, it will be gross malpractice on the behalf of Boston’s training staff. As the remnants of 2024’s championship roster have been packaged and parceled to all corners of the league, there is no longer a championship structure awaiting Tatum’s return. Even if Boston were jockeying for play-in positioning, there is not enough runway for him to ramp up by April. Not to mention, a realization of this timeline would defy the constraints of modern medicine. Therefore, Tatum’s only contribution to the Celtics will be in the gaping hole he leaves behind.

Ceiling: 7^th Seed

Reaching one’s ceiling does not necessarily equate to the best-case scenario—losing would be more beneficial in the long term. Nevertheless, there is a scenario in which Boston vaults a doom-stricken slate of Eastern Conference foes en route to the 7^th seed.

In order for this situation to be realized, a number of teams would need to fall out of favor with the basketball gods. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that there are three teams with which no combination of injuries or absences makes them worse than the Celtics this season: the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Orlando Magic. These teams all house the necessary depth to withstand a magnitude of injury woes, and therefore have zero chance of being worse than the 2025-25 Boston Celtics. Barring catastrophe, the Atlanta Hawks will likely round out this group.

Below them are the contenders who—despite their talent—are one major injury away from cascading toward the bottom of the conference. In this tier, we have the Detroit Pistons (Cade Cunningham), Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo), and Philadelphia 76ers (Tyrese Maxey)—presuming Joel Embiid and Paul George don’t stumble ass-backwards into the fountain of youth. For Boston to hit the 7^th seed, it would require the implosion of at least one of these three teams.

It would also require the Celtics to emerge as the alpha dog of the Eastern Conference’s lower-middle class, which includes the Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat—again, a reasonably foreseeable outcome. However, considering the improbability of this celestial alignment, the 7^th seed is the absolute pinnacle of expectation for this year’s Boston Celtics.

Floor: 12^th Seed

The argument for the Celtics' floor is essentially the same as that of their ceiling, but in reverse. This scenario exists in a world in which the Celtics are buried from opening night. The team finds itself without the services of Jaylen Brown and/or Derrick White for a significant stretch of the season, their center depth is as bad as it currently looks (it can’t possibly get worse), and Brad Stevens decides to scrap the entire season by the New Year.

In this case—if everything goes sideways—there are still three teams who will be inarguably worse—the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and the Brooklyn Nets. Sitting right above this impenetrable layer of grime would sit the woeful worst-case Celtics, hoping for the lottery Gods to offer up a silver lining.

Players to Watch

In the absence of Jayson Tatum and the wake of the resulting fire-sale of contributing assets, there are a few Celtics who intrigue me…the first, of course, being Payton Pritchard.

Payton Pritchard is the rare guard getting a no-lose audition as the Celtics' starting point guard. This past season, the Sixth Man of the Year played the role of the sixth starter, averaging over 28 minutes per night behind the since-excommunicated Jrue Holiday. In these minutes, Pritchard scored over 14 points per game while knocking down 41.8% of his nearly 600 three-point attempts.

While his minutes aren’t likely to spike, Pritchard will assume a much more centralized role this season. With Tatum on the sideline, he elevates from sparkplug to verifiable third option behind Brown and White. Last year, his usage sat at 18.8%, which is in the 64^th percentile of all players and within the range of his career averages. If he stagnates, the sixth man role will be waiting for him when Tatum returns and the team is once again ready to contend. If he spreads his wings, there is no telling the heights he could reach. Either way, this season is a crucial pivot point in Pritchard’s young career.

The next player that excites me is Derrick White, for whom my expectations are unreasonably high. On average, each season inducts six first-time All-Stars. This year, White is toward the top of my board to make this leap.

Since joining the Celtics, Derrick White has been one of the most productive players in the entire league, combining relentless defensive versatility and exceptional offensive efficiency in his ascent as a favorite among Celtics fans and basketball nerds alike. This year, the question circling White regards his scalability on the offensive end. While the question itself is as nuanced as it is broad, my answer is decidedly un-sexy.

Without Tatum, White will have more opportunities to score the basketball. Therefore, even in the event of a downtick in efficiency, his counting numbers will climb. Assuming that most casual fans don’t tune into many Celtics games this season, White’s intangibles will benefit from his rock-solid reputation. If he can get up to around 20 points per game—which I expect that he will—there’s a world in which White sneaks in as an Eastern Conference reserve.

My third and final pick is Chris Boucher, who signed a one-year, $3.3 million contract with Boston earlier this month. When the move was announced, Boucher’s oddly decorated bench resume stunned a vast majority of the basketball community, myself included. In seven years of service, Boucher racked up franchise records in nearly every bench statistic imaginable.

At 32 years old, it’s unlikely that there’s another level to Boucher’s game that’s yet to be unraveled. However, he’s never experienced a system that’s as reliant on his contributions as the one waiting for him in Boston. Boucher’s versatility, combined with the Celtics’ indefensible lack of size, will open a trove of new and potentially fruitful opportunities.

Concluding Thoughts

My expectations for the 2025-26 Boston Celtics are low. In the absence of Jayson Tatum and with the exits of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, everyone is wearing a set of shoes that are two sizes too big. Brown will awkwardly waddle in the role of resident superstar. Derrick White will trade in his work boots for flashier kicks. Payton Pritchard may have the biggest upgrade of all, though there’s some optimism that he’ll grow into the job.

There are two fatal flaws in the Celtics roster: the lack of a true center and the ruptured left Achilles tendon of Jayson Tatum. However, in a diluted Eastern Conference, Boston will most likely grab the 9^th or 10^th seed before suffering a swift and unceremonious escort into an early off-season.

If I’m a Celtics fan, I’m watching this year as much as for next. An open landscape of opportunities will allow Pritchard and White to explore the depths of their potential. In addition, the establishment of Brown as a second option—nothing more, nothing less—is an invaluable silver lining to what is an otherwise underwhelming product. Conventional success is unlikely, but in this disorder, we find nuggets of hope that set the stage for Boston’s rebirth.

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The Sacramento Kings are one of—if not the—most tortured franchises in professional sports. At the risk of speaking in absolutes, Sacramento often operates with an unparalleled level of incompetence. For the better part of this century, they sulked in anonymity, recounting tales of Mike Bibby and Bobby Jackson from the early 2000s, perpetually wondering where it all went wrong. For a staggering 16 consecutive seasons, the Kings finished with a record below .500. And, for 16 consecutive seasons, the Kings missed the playoffs.

In 2022, there was a sudden glimmer of hope. The Kings were not only winning, but they were young. They were exciting. The future had seemingly arrived in the form of Domantas Sabonis and franchise cornerstone De’Aaron Fox. Sacramento’s revival culminated in a 1st round loss to Golden State in which they took the eventual champions to Game 7. It would require a managerial collapse of catastrophic proportions to uproot what was growing in downtown Sacramento.

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Over the past three seasons, it has been one of my greatest displeasures as a basketball fan, as well as a human with a heart, to watch Sacramento’s front office do just that. Not only was their future uprooted, but in its place was dropped a vat of toxic, radioactive sludge. This past winter, Fox—understandably frustrated with the team’s inability to surround him with contending pieces—requested a trade to San Antonio. His wishes were granted, yielding Zach LaVine in return. It’s been as ugly as ugly gets.

However, in the wake of tragedy, I’d like to propose a way forward…to light a torch and illuminate a path out of this cavernous hole. Allow me to pay devil’s advocate and suggest that maybe…just maybe…I understand what the Kings front office is doing.

To embark upon such a treacherous expedition, I feel it pertinent to first establish a set of unwavering parameters which we must abide by. These are in place to maintain a sense of realism for the benefit of our current conversation, as to justify any hope that this avenue is a feasible future. They are as follows…

List of Core Assumptions

1. The front office stays (mostly) the same. The irreplaceables include…

a. Owner Vivek Ranadive

b. General Manager Scott Perry

c. Assistant GM B.J. Armstrong

2. Jonathan Kuminga and Russell Westbrook become Sacramento Kings this off-season.

a. Their respective cap hit will be calculated based on their last listed offer. However, due to the current ambiguity of these figures, I won’t factor them heavily into any crucial arguments or analyses.

3. The front office continues to operate with their patented freneticism (i.e. they aren’t injected with a sudden and previously unforeseen wisdom).

a. All suggested moves will be executed—to the best of my ability—based on previous transactions and trends.

2025 Off-Season

With that established, let’s begin in the 2025 off-season. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Kings realize their “Dream Scenario” and add both Jonathan Kuminga and Russell Westbrook. Based on previously reported conservative estimates, Kuminga would receive a 4-year, $92 million contract, while Westbrook would sign for the veteran minimum of 1-year, $3.6 million. The Kuminga signing is a prerequisite to this process, as he will become the first block to the team’s new and revitalized future.

Kuminga’s first few years have been stunted by inconsistency of opportunity and expectation. In Sacramento, I have the utmost confidence that he would flourish. Kuminga’s athelticism is eye-popping, and his potential on both ends of the floor is indeniable. Within the confines of a more elastic structure—one that’s willing to prioritize his development—Jonathan Kuminga becomes the player he was meant to be when Golden State drafted him 7th overall in 2021.

2025-26

Last season, the Kings took a profound step backward, finishing at 40-42. For a fanbase to starved for success, it’s preferable to live at the positive and negative extremes than to survive as a middling entity. With that being said, it’s unrealistic to expect the front office to readily accept the Zach LaVine/DeMar DeRozan/Domantas Sabonis triumvirate for what it was doomed to become…a failure.

LaVine and DeRozan are both under contract through the 2027 off-season, at which point they will be 31 and 37, respectively. Let’s operate within the most likely scenario, being that both players remain in Sacramento through the end of this term. Though under-qualified in their current roles, the scoring punch that this tandem provides is good enough to safely buoy the Kings to a respectable win total…and this is fine. There’s no need to panic. If Sacramento claims the 13^th seed in the West—the range I project—puts them squarely in contention for a top 7-8 pick. As we’ve seen in previous drafts, this is a position with a high upside, as well as a relatively high floor. To be conservative, we’ll give Sacramento the 8^th overall pick.

2026 Off-Season

In the 2026 Draft, our selection should represent a tangible learning curve. Do NOT select a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect. Instead, let’s swing for the fences. My eye is on Mikel Brown Jr. out of Louisville, a dynamic young guard who can develop as a scorer alongside Kuminga.

Once the pick is made, the next step is to either extend Keon Ellis or bring him back in the off-season. Sure, you can replicate his prototype, either in the draft process or through free agency. But why should you? He’s both good and criminally undervalued. Keep him.

Next, turn your veteran assets into picks, picks, and more picks. The Kings already have a sneakily large war chest of picks, holding 9 first rounders through 2032. Learn from the De’Aaron Fox fiasco and get out while the getting is good. This applies to players like Schroder, Saric, McDermott, and Monk…capitalize on the mirage of contention painted on the horizon by the wildly open Western Conference. With our ship headed for open waters, we sail into next season with a confidence spawned by a definitive sense of direction.

2026-27

The 2026-27 season will bear many similarities to the last. The directionless amalgam of veteran placeholders that inhabit the current roster are getting cycled out, gradually replaced by youth and developmental depth. In this respect, the presence of LaVine and DeRozan will—for the first time in their Sacramento tenure—yield a positive outcome. Nique Clifford, Devin Carter, and Maxime Reynaud are fine young players, so long as they aren’t extended beyond their natural limitations. They should be developed in accordance with a realistic future in mind—feel out whatever potential they may hold without forcing them into bad habits. With LaVine and DeRozan rostered for one last season, these young and raw rotational pieces will be slotted into natural—and particularly forgiving—marginalized roles.

2027 Off-Season

At this point, we find ourselves entering the 2027 off-season. Once again, we’ll presumably have a top 10 pick. The direction we take from here is wholly dependent upon the growth of Kuminga, Carter, Clifford, and our 2026 first round pick. In the off chance that nothing materializes, bottom out. Grab a shovel and keep digging until you hit the rock bottom of the draft lottery. On the flip side, if at least two show promise, it’s time to build around the periphery. With the wealth of talent in the 2027 free agency pool—Jokic, Giannis, Anthony Davis—big market teams will undoubtedly feast at the top. Chasing a big fish is both unrealistic and counter-intuitive to our goal, which is for the Kings to be competitive…but also fun.

The first move we make is a practice in addition by subtraction: Do NOT extend Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. Next, assuming his development continues to flatline, offer a team-friendly extension to Keegan Murray. He’s undoubtedly talented, but we have to recognize his true value. Don’t commit the same malpractice as Chicago did with Patrick Williams. Next, we allow the subsequent cap freedom to flower into three, maybe four mid-level players. While recognizing that much can change in three years, I offer a few of my favorite 2027 free agents for the Kings to make a play for.

• Aaron Nesmith: UFA/Bird, 27.8 years old

• Naji Marshall: UFA/Bird, 29.5 years old

• Luguentz Dort: UFA/Bird, 28.2 years old

• G.G. Jackson: UFA/Bird, 22.6 years old

2027-28

This new direction propels us into the 2027-28 season—a fundamental pivot point in the process. If our players—Kuminga, Clifford, and picks—are progressing along a desirable path, capitalize. Push your chips in. If not, the Kings still find themselves in an enviable position: flexible, young, and unburdened by long-term mistakes. The internality of your growth allows you to move on from any and all excess and proceed tangentially. Even if it doesn’t work out, and the rebuild starts all over again, the roster will be homegrown—which is an under-emphasized pleasure for the devout sports fan.

Closing Reflection

This is my tentative justification for the current direction of the Sacramento Kings. Beginning with the current contracts of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, we embark down a multi-year process of eating past mistakes and creating an environment of internal growth that emphasizes youth, depth, and continuity. Many of the foundational elements of this vision are already in place. If Kuminga doesn’t sign, I’m admittedly hung out to dry. Nevertheless, this experiment’s core moral grounding still rings true.

They are not dead, nor are they dying They are dormant—waiting. And when they wake up, the Kings might finally rule the West.

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That will not be today’s topic. Instead, I want to talk about what’s known in the finance world as penny stocks—those overlooked shares that trade for $5 or less. Just beneath the league’s upper crust lives an entire ecosystem of NBA penny stocks: players whose value is low now, but whose upside is real if you know where to look.

Here are five player whose stock I’m buying low for the 2025-26 season—because sometimes the highest upside can be found on the lowest floors.

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Brandon Williams

Guard, Dallas Mavericks

I was surprised by the shortage of advocacy for the stellar season put together by Brandon Williams last year. Perhaps he earned more resounding support in the inner circles of the Dallas fanbase—but if these gated communities existed, I was not granted entry. The gravity of his impact pulls far stronger than the 33 games he played. In the 13 games in which he played 20+ minutes—including 11 in the month of March—Williams never scored less than 10 points. Not only was his production palpable, but it was efficient as well. Williams shot 40.0% from three for the season, including 41.2% on open threes and 40.5% on wide open threes, per NBA.com’s tracking data.

Next season, the window for Williams to solidify his presence is wide open—a fortunate byproduct of the Mavericks’ paper-thin guard depth. To supplement the absence of Kyrie Irving, who will spend the first chunk of the season sidelined with an ACL tear, Dallas brought in D’Angelo Russell. Prevailing sentiment pencils Russell next to fellow veteran Klay Thompson who—at 35-years-old—is fighting simultaneous losing battles against both Father Time and a checkered injury history.

Below this thin upper crust exists an uninspiring amalgam of shapeless combo guards (Dante Exum, Max Christie, Jaden Hardy) above whom I expect Brandon Williams to rise. While on the older side—Williams will be 26 in November—there are a few reasons I expect him to make this leap.

The first reason is unnuanced, yet exceedingly important…the Dallas Mavericks want to win basketball games. There is zero incentive for the franchise to reappear in the lottery next season. Kyrie will be back, presumably by the All-Star break. Anthony Davis is nearing the later portion of his prime and has the acumen to elevate a sub-optimal supporting cast. Cooper Flagg—the No. 1 pick—will only benefit from immediate immersion into winning basketball.

At the risk of sounding like a smear campaign against Dallas’s young guards, I believe Coach Kidd will prioritize the immediate value that Williams provides over the respective contributions of Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum. And, while Max Christie remains their most promising wing prospect, his skillset allows him to coexist with Williams in a way that won’t deplete either of their opportunities.

If all goes right, I wouldn’t be floored if Brandon Williams played in 50+ games this season and earned upwards of 20 minutes a night. While nothing in the league is for certain, I feel comfortable sprinkling some capital on Brandon Williams stock for next season. He’s earned the right to prove himself, and all signs are pointing up for Williams’ continued rise.  

Collin Gillespie

Guard, Phoenix Suns

If you had told me before I embarked upon this project that I would be excited to talk about Collin Gillespie basketball, I would have called you a madman…no, I would have laughed in your face—a gesture for which I would now be forced to profusely apologize because oh…my…GOODNESS. I’m so excited about Collin Gillespie.

As with many of his peers on this list, Gillespie had an underrated 2024-25 campaign. Similar to Brandon Williams, Gillespie played in just 33 games this year, of which he started nine. Admittedly, my mind was elsewhere during these appearances, as watching Suns basketball was a soul-crashing exercise in self-induced misery. However, Gillespie’s impact really pops on tape.

He's a capable offensive initiator, which may sound basic but is a rare commodity in Phoenix. Last season, Gillespie shot 43.3% from deep, including 48.4% on wide open threes. With the off-season acquisition of Jalen Green, Gillespie’s ability to thrive without the ball will ease the burden on what projects as a stagnant offensive system.

As it currently stands, Devin Booker is slated to open the season as the Suns’ starting point guard. This will not last, with the main reason being that Phoenix has a vested interest in maximizing his short-term production. Booker is at his best as a primary creator, a role which cannot be adequately realized with Jalen Green as a co-star. For this reason, it would fully behoove Suns’ head coach Jordan Ott stagger Booker and Green’s respective minutes. That’s where Collin Gillespie steps in.

What I like about Gillespie is that I can anticipate production that won’t dip below a certain baseline. At his best, I envision a rise like that of Tre Jones with the Spurs in 2023, where he solidified himself as a high-value backup point guard. At his worst, Gillespie will be a lights-out shooter, give maximum effort on defense and 50/50 balls, and—if all pillars around him crumble to the ground—Gillespie will not be the reason that the Suns lose basketball games. For these reasons, I’m very comfortable sprinkling some capital behind Collin Gillespie’s stock for the 2025-26 season.

Trendon Watford

Forward, Philadelphia 76ers

This is a shot in the dark…but why am I strangely confident that it will connect? The off-season departure of Guerschon Yabusele is a glaring vacancy for a Philadelphia team that’s already suspect in their depth. Now, my logic could be flawed, and there’s a chance I’m over-simplifying a nuanced situation, but…

…is it that crazy to suggest that Watford could fill his role?

The Sixers will not be healthy next season. I don’t know who it will be, and I don’t know when it will strike, but someone’s going down. It’s the league’s most stubborn curse. However, Daryl Morey’s competency at filling out the back end of the Sixers’ rotation with competent—and genuinely exciting—young talent is enviable. Last year, it was Justin Edwards, and—for the second half of the season—Quentin Grimes. This season, I believe it will be Trendon Watford.

Last season, in 44 games with the Brooklyn Nets, Watford averaged 10.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on 46.9% from the field and 33% from three. In expected scoring, he ranked in the 80th percentile of all players with 24.6 points. Despite his marginalized role—20.4 minutes per game—Watford also exercised a substantial usage rate of 22.9%. Extracting production from a scrap-heap lottery team and attempting to translate it to a winning situation is a tricky endeavor. However, I believe in Daryl Morey’s ability to find and maximize untapped talent. He did it with Yabusele, and I can trick myself into drawing vague parallels with Watford. If you have some spare change, throw it on his stock. It’s not sexy, but there’s money to be made.

Jay Huff

Center, Indiana Pacers

Huff might be too mainstream of a pick for this list, but he makes it regardless for one reason—I don’t think people understand how good Jay Huff is at basketball. Myles Turner left Indiana for Milwaukee, their detestable little brother. The move was a shocking upheaval, and a surprising pivot against the tax by the Pacers who many anticipated would seek to retain their championship core in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton’s ruptured achilles. The Pacers’ center rotation is a glaring positional weak spot in a league with a shifting prioritization of size. Operating under the assumption that Indiana won’t seek to pad this deficiency, Huff will be battling for minutes with Isaiah Jackson and Tony Bradley next season—a fight which I expect Huff to win handily.

My case for a Jay Huff breakout season begins with the unique circumstances presented by Haliburton’s injury. By all accounts, the Pacers are incentivized to be bad next year, a goal which their roster is far too talented to achieve. Their most valuable asset heading into next season is their first-round pick, which projects to land in the high-teens-to-low-twenties. Living in this middle ground, they should lean on promising, slightly wacky experimental pieces to captain the team’s direction.

Enter, Jay Huff.

Huff played in 64 games for the Memphis Grizzlies last year, in which he averaged 6.9 points on 51.5% from the field and 40.5% from three for a True Shooting % of 66.3%. Per 75 minutes, Huff’s scoring production leaps to 20.2 points, which—parlayed with his cool-handed consistency—projects to grow with an increased workload.

Huff won’t make an All-Star Game next season. I have doubts over whether he’ll be the Pacers starting center on opening night, with Isaiah Jackson the more likely candidate. That’s not to say, however, that Huff won’t be the most deserving of a starting role, and that he won’t usurp his competition before the New Year.

If Huff’s minutes spike to 22-23 per night, his scoring—particularly from beyond the arc—will scale accordingly. He’ll be lights out from three, finding space in an offense conceptually orchestrated to serve the exact demands of his playstyle. Huff will score 13-14 points per game and grab just enough boards to justify the coaching staff’s continued faith. If Jay Huff’s stock remains in the pennies, BUY IT. My gut says he’s poised for a breakout season—if not from a skill leap, then in a furthered national recognition of what Huff brings to an NBA floor.

Simone Fontecchio

Wing, Miami Heat

I’m romantic about Simone Fontecchio. Though entering just his fourth season in the NBA, the 6’8” Italian wing will turn 30 in December. While perhaps not the most exciting prospect—his advanced age drives his stock alllll the way down into our range—Fontecchio is a real NBA player.

There are a few ledges you’ll have to follow me out onto before you join me on the Simone Fontecchio hype train. The first pertains to his ability to effect winning basketball, which I believe in with a hopeless optimism. Last season in Detroit was the first time he’s been part of a viable team.

It was also his worst season.

Last year, Fontecchio’s efficiency dropped to 40.2% from the field and 33.5% from deep. His Estimated Plus-Minus of -2.8 was in the 22nd percentile of all NBA players, with the main culprit of this downtick being on the offensive side of the ball. This season, he’ll be a member of a Miami Heat team that still considers itself to be a winning program. While their cap future is dreadful, and the looming contract extensions of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are heat-seeking missiles programmed to decimate their cap sheet, Fontecchio’s 1-year, $8.3 million contract is a welcome token of flexibility. Similarly, if the Heat anticipate dumping his contract at the deadline to ease some financial tensions, it would only serve to maximize Fontecchio’s opportunities.

This leads me to my second ledge, which is short, but daunting—you’ll have to believe in his ability to bounce back as a shooter. In 2024, Fontecchio knocked down triples at a 40% clip. Is this mark feasible? Maybe. Probably not. However, under the guiding hand of “Heat culture”, I see no reason why Fontecchio can’t climb back closer to 37-38% next year.

For the third ledge, which we’ll be traversing blindfolded and backward, is that Fontecchio will be a plus defender. While defense has always been a relative strength of his game, it’s by no means been elite. Do I think he’ll make a dramatic transformation? Absolutely not. But there’s at least a good defender hiding somewhere in his game, and there’s no better tandem at extracting unforeseen capability than Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra.

Next season, I predict Fontecchio’s production to jump back up to around 10 points per game, a marked improvement from the 5.9 he averaged last year with Detroit. My belief in Fontecchio stems from a healthy fear of doubting Miami’s organizational resiliency, which I think is a fool’s errand. They always find a way, and I wouldn’t be shocked if their pathway to success runs at least part-way through Simone Fontecchio.  

Where they fall…

The NBA is a star-driven league—it always has been, and it always will be. However, winning is not a star-driven endeavor. As all die-hard fans can attest, the dog days of March and February are won with depth. In these five players, I see massive underlying potential for immediate and consequential contributions.

Who’s your sleeper stock for next season? Drop a comment below to lock it in!

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